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Condo Market Update - August 2006
The Portland-area condo market continues to generate interest–both from prospective buyers and from those wondering if a ‘condo bubble’ is in the making. I have taken a half dozen calls in the past few months from housing analysts and out-of-state developers who are questioning the elasticity of the Portland market to absorb more high-end developments.
Here is a glimpse at the available inventory in Portland and suburbs, as of August 17. The column labeled ‘DOM’ stands for Days on Market, or the average days listings have been active.
| Area |
Listings
|
Avg. List Price
|
Avg. Sq. Ft.
|
$ per sq. ft.
|
DOM
|
| West Portland (inc. downtown)* |
571
|
$575,788
|
1,269
|
$428
|
99
|
| Southeast Portland |
120
|
$295,515
|
1,161
|
$255
|
61
|
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville |
105
|
$214,803
|
1,222
|
$176
|
104
|
| Northeast Portland |
104
|
$233,373
|
1,005
|
$232
|
67
|
| North Portland** |
90
|
$520,267
|
1,517
|
$343
|
135
|
| Lake Oswego / West Linn |
89
|
$330,322
|
1,357
|
$243
|
56
|
| Beaverton / Aloha |
87
|
$210,134
|
1,172
|
$179
|
38
|
| Milwaukie / Clackamas |
28
|
$363,314
|
1,552
|
$234
|
57
|
| NW Washington County |
12
|
$235,137
|
1,192
|
$197
|
83
|
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove |
10
|
$194,153
|
980
|
$198
|
41
|
| Oregon City / Canby |
10
|
$222,190
|
1,376
|
$161
|
103
|
| Yamhill County |
8
|
$172,113
|
1,141
|
$151
|
74
|
| Gresham / Troutdale |
7
|
$157,657
|
1,164
|
$135
|
20
|
| Yamhill County |
7
|
$233,786
|
1,385
|
$169
|
46
|
Note these figures are purely a snapshot of the active listings in the local multiple listing service as of August 17. Units marketed by the developer’s sales team or for sale by owner are not reflected here.
Compared to my April post, the downtown inventory is up 75%. So are the Northeast Portland units. Much of that can be attributed to the completion and release of apartment conversions (like the Harrison) and near-completion of new projects like the Vaux. The all-so-important time on market measure hasn’t changed all that dramatically.
My back-of-envelope analysis says that the condo market is reflective of the overall market in Portland–more inventory, slower sales pace, and high-end properties taking much longer to sell than in 2005.
* Of the West Portland listings, 415 units are located in the city center. Several listings are pre-sales, including The Benson, The Civic, and The Atwater. The Pearl properties appear to be holding their own, but a considerable inventory exists for the high-end riverfront properties like the John Ross, Riverscape, Meriwether.
** North Portland’s figures are skewed by 49 high-end riverfront listings in Jantzen Beach/Tomahawk Island, priced between $400,000 and $2,276,500. Without these properties, North Portland’s condo stats would be: 40 listings averaging $183,534, 811 sq. ft, $226 per square foot, and 66 average days on the market.
Photo by: Portland Ground: Pictures of Portland Oregon. Used under Creative Commons license.
[tags] condo, Portland, inventory, average, prices, condominiums [/tags]
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Comments
7 Responses to “Condo Market Update - August 2006”
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let’s face the facts. the real estate bubble is popping. today’s buyers of real estate are tomorrow’s filers of bankruptcy.
Even if the market slows to its historically average appreciation rate of 6%, people will still have the same monthly payments and a place to live. Even people with ARM mortgages can refinance into fixed rate mortgages without a huge payment shock. Rates have even declined the past couple months providing homeowners ample opportunity to refinance comfortably now and in the foreseeable future. The “bubble” will not “burst” because real estate is a tangible commodity. Everyone needs a place to live and last time I checked our population was increasing.
The last point is important - and raises a question: Do we know the percentage of owner occupier purchases? I remember a number a few years back when things were really heating up that housing sales were increasingly made up of investor/speculative purchases. If that contiues - then you see a little more air that can be let out of the bubble as investors panic to recoup value if things head south on them. A house is tangible - two or three is a little more problematic.
Hi , just found this. My wife and I moved to Portland a year ago and are renting with an eye on buying. But I sense after the last couple of years and what is going on now that we can take our time and only get a better price in the months (years?) ahead.
As Paul alludes to, I wonder how many speculators bought homes here like they did in other areas. Heck, where I work at HP Vancouver there is a subdivision of row houses that completed last summer where 33 out of 130 homes have ‘For Sale’ signs and several other properties show signs of being empty / neglected.
Also, where can you get hard data on the number of toxic loans taken out in the PDX area since Greenspan talked up ARMs? How many paid nothing to get in the market? How many PDX mortgages will be resetting their payments between now and 2008?
Those are the questions I want answers for before I become a serious buyer. Thanks!
I too would be curious to see how may ARM’s, Interest Only Loans, and the like were employed to finance home purchases in the PDX metro area.
In response to questions about creative financing (interest-only loans, ARMs, option ARMs, etc.)., I’m not aware of anyone in the local area that is tracking it. At this point (November), foreclosures haven’t budged much.
As for timing the market for bargains, barring an economic downturn in the area (or nationally) I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of a wholesale meltdown. Portland’s fundamentals are pretty good overall. I think we’re looking at 6 months of a more balanced buyer/seller market.
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