-
Your Host
Brought to you by Ron Ares, an Oregon broker licensed with MRealty.
Contact: (503) 460-7992
Follow Along
Subscribe in a reader
Week Links – November 30, 2007
A sampling of Portland-related real estate links from the last week or so. Forecasters and prognosticators are making the rounds. I’ll share additional notes next week.
Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland forecast
Analysts Jerry Johnson, John Mitchell & David Ludwig address the Home Builders Association of Metro Portland. Net message: A slow 2008, perhaps slower than 2007, but a strong rebound in 2009.
Ryan Frank of the Oregonian covers the HBA Forecast. KGW’s coverage of the same event
Portland prices defy national trends
The front-page article in the Oregonian this week that buoyed some spirits.
Jeffrey Kempe, local real estate broker, drags us into his Conversation Pit with timely thoughts about green building, the upcoming Buena Vista auction, and a significant change to Oregon state law as it pertains to sales by out-of-state homeowners.
Yet another New York Times article
The NYT continues its love-fest reporting on the Northwest, this time on the coastal town of Manzanita.
(I should mention the previous NYT article which documented the in-migration phenomenon surrounding Portland quoted my recent clients Richard & Lila. Cheers and hope you are enjoying the new digs!).
[tags] Portland, Oregon, real estate, news, stories, reporting, links [/tags]
Google Terrain Hints at Topo Features
I admit I am something of a Google Maps fanboy.
Starting with their user-friendly search interface, Google mapmeisters have continued to innovate with features like drag-and-drop multi-stop directions, traffic density views, user-generated maps, and most recently, the Street View. Good stuff for real estate-related information gathering.
Now, they’ve added a new layer–Terrain, which provides topographic information for the map you’re viewing. Just like using the satellite view or traffic views, just type in the address want, then click the “Terrain” button in the upper righthand corner.
It isn’t particularly detailed and you can’t zoom in as far as other views, but it does give a quick peek at whether that listing you’re researching is in a canyon, on top of a ridge, or in the flats.
Close-up of West Hills
For an out-of-town buyer or someone unfamiliar with Portland-area topography, it’s very useful information, especially if the Street View is not available at that location.
[tags] Portland, Oregon, real estate, Google, maps, topography, terrain, search [/tags]
Portland Prices Rising, But Facing Uncertainty
The morning Oregonian trumpets “Portland home prices stable while most cities slide.”
Certainly, Portland has fared well versus other major metropolitan markets. A 20-city index by Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices shows a 4.9% drop in home prices nationally when looking at September 2007 vs. September 2006 results. By comparison, Portland’s market showed a 2.2% gain–third best in the nation. Seattle and Charlotte, NC topped the list at +4.7%.
But trends show, just like being late to the pricing run-up, Portland will eventually feel the effects of national mortgage constraints and economic uncertainty — making additional downward pricing pressure inevitable.
Perhaps looking at different indicators than closed sales will give some advance warning. The chart below, by independent researchers Altos Research, shows a steady decline in asking prices over the past few months. Other readers have pointed at similar charts here, and here.
Please note, these studies look at asking prices and come from ‘public records’, but none really document their source (it is not provided by RMLS directly).
Nevertheless, the leading indicator of median asking price may serve as the canary in the coalmine, foreshadowing more precipitous declines in actual sale price. We’ll see…
The Oregonian article goes on to talk about reasons why the Portland area has been more immune to drastic price cuts–all things I’ve been saying about livability, affordability (compared to other West Coast cities), moderate job growth, and a minimum of haphazard over-building (Buena Vista and downtown condo developers excepted).
But in 2008, we’ll need continued national economic confidence, some mortgage reform, and ongoing in-migration from other markets — just to keep prices flat.
Otherwise, home sellers might want to sharpen that pencil, and buyers might have better deals ahead yet.
[tags] Portland, Oregon, homes, housing, prices, appreciation [/tags]
Avoid the Christmas Rush, Embrace the Thanksgiving Crush
Dreading the post-Thanksgiving Christmas Crush of Commercialism?
This weekend, enjoy a different kind of crush and venture into the pastoral Oregon wine country for the 2007 Thanksgiving Wine Country weekend.
A favorite tradition of wine enthusiasts, it’s an opportunity to visit many of the smaller Oregon wineries that only open twice a year–Thanksgiving and Memorial Day.
Because they don’t have formal tasting and retail space, the smaller wineries open up the production floor near their barrels, invite cheesemakers, bakers and other food artisans, and provide the first tastings from the 2006 crush. Of course, the larger winemakers are open too, but you can visit them just about any weekend.
You’ll find a wide variety of wineries, wine bars, barns, and cellars throughout Gaston, Forest Grove, Newberg, Carlton, Lafayette, Gaston, McMinnville, Scholls, Dundee and south to Salem to be open Friday through Sunday, with entrance fees ranging from free to well over $20.
So, grab your mobile GPS, print out the map and winery list and head out. The weekend’s weather forecast is making for an unforgettable scenic and gustatorial adventure.
Here’s the map and list of participating wineries in the Willamette Valley tour. My picks: Sineann and Brick House.
And, if you’re in the market for wine property, you’ll want to look up Peter Bouman of GMAC Realty, who is both a winemaker and wine country real estate specialist. Ask me for his number or look for him pouring for the Sineann label this weekend.
[tags] Oregon, Thanksgiving, wine, wineries, tour, tasting [/tags]
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – October 2007
Portland’s October 2007 real estate market results reveal no major surprises. Slower pace of sales, longer market times, and…confoundingly, higher sale prices.
The only significant trend change was a decrease in new listings, the first dip in homes placed on the market since February 2006.
The average market time is 64 days (vs. 47 in 2006), and the average sale price is $339,300, up 6.7% over the same 12-month period from a year ago. The median sale price is up 7.3% to $287,500. At the current pace of sales, it would take 8.4 months to sell the existing inventory (vs. 4.6 months in October 2006).
Oversupply is having the greatest effect on Happy Valley (at -1.7% appreciation over 12 months). From month-to-month, most other market areas are holding firm or showing small gains in pricing on a year-to-date basis.
Year-to-date results by market area:
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $560,400 | $465,000 | 3.8% |
| West Portland | $463,900 | $379,800 | 3.7% |
| NW Washington County | $418,400 | $385,000 | 2.7% |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $375,600 | $339,900 | 5.4% |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $337,600 | $300,000 | -1.7% |
| Oregon City / Canby | $330,500 | $302,900 | 3.7% |
| Northeast Portland | $321,700 | $282,500 | 5.9% |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $298,400 | $270,000 | 8.7% |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $289,500 | $260,000 | 3.8% |
| Southeast Portland | $286,600 | $250,000 | 8.9% |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $281,500 | $259,900 | 8.8% |
| Yamhill County | $282,900 | $250,000 | 8.2% |
| North Portland | $265,800 | $252,000 | 8.5% |
| Columbia County | $255,900 | $240,000 | 13.0% |
Appreciation percentages are based on a comparison of average price from the last 12 months (11/01/06 – 10/31/07) with 12 months before (11/01/05 – 10/31/06). Source: RMLS, November 2007.
[tags] Portland, Oregon, real estate, homes, houses, price, average, median, appreciation [/tags]
Bear Market Bites Builder
But will buyers benefit?
I’ve generally given local homebuilders a lot of credit for their restraint in not swamping the Portland market with speculative housing. But it appears at least one builder has overshot the mark to the point of employing a bold bailout strategy to unload unsold inventory.
Buena Vista Custom Homes announced they will be auctioning their entire inventory of finished homes, around 230 in all, in a two-day auction December 15 and 16. List prices for homes are between $300,000 and $650,000. Bids start at $69,000.
It’s no wonder. I spent last weekend touring Happy Valley with new clients and found street upon street of finished, vacant homes in Buena Vista developments–only to see new surveying flags and infrastructure installed on extensions and new phases in these same neighborhoods. Time for a fire sale!
Large-scale auctions have been conducted in other overbuilt markets, but this is the first such event I’ve heard of in Portland. In today’s Oregonian, Buena Vista’s president says that properties could sell for as little as 40% of the original list price.
From Buena Vista’s press release:
The homes that will be offered are located in some of the most popular selling communities in the Portland Metropolitan area. Communities include: Beaverton, Happy Valley, Hillsboro, Sandy, Bend and Scappoose. Floor plans range from 1113 to 5073 square feet and many include Buena Vista’s popular amenity package’s which include designer finishes such as granite counter tops, extensive hardwood floors, cherry cabinets, stainless steel appliances, multiple fireplaces and much more.
They’re going to keep on building, however.
The company has many projects on the horizon for the future. In early 2008 the company will embark upon new neighborhoods in Tigard, Oregon City, Southwest Portland and Happy Valley.
This time, my guess is they’ll be taking deposits first.
About the Auction:
Dates: December 15th and 16th.
Location: Oregon Convention Center.
Registration: Will open at 9am
Auction Start Time: 10am on each day.
Over 250 New homes, investment properties, and condominiums will be auctioned with starting bids as low as $69,000. Financing will be provided at the auction by Countrywide Home Loans with down payments as low as 5%. Loan pre-qualification before the event is available via phone. Event admission and registration are free. Bidders must have in their possession a $5,000 cashiers check made payable to themselves on auction day in order to receive their bidder number. Winning bidders will be required to put this $5,000 toward their down payment and write a personal or business check for the remainder of the down payment open to escrow. All escrow on properties sold at the auction is expected to close in 21 days. Expected attendance for the event is over 1,000 buyers. At the auction each home will be individually offered, potential buyers can visit the homes in advance Friday through Sunday (10am-5pm).
If you’re interested in one of these homes, you’ll likely be on your own. There doesn’t appear to be any reciprocal compensation offered to buyer’s agents, so you will need to pay an agent or lawyer out of your own pocket if you want advice or representation during your due diligence period.
Links:
AuctionToday.com – Buena Vista’s auctioneer (no property information as of 11/15/2007)
Auction FAQ
Buena Vista press release
[tags] Portland, Oregon, homes, houses, builder, construction, auction, Buena Vista [/tags]
Smile! You’re on PortlandMaps
I noted the possibility of this a little over a year ago, and now it has come to pass, albeit quietly.
As of September 17, 2007, the names of homeowners in the Portland metro area are now displayed online to users of PortlandMaps.com, the City of Portland’s property information portal.
From the PortlandMaps site:
After many months of research and discussion, within the City and Multnomah County, there was concurrence that based on State Statutes, the property owner names were public records and the property owner names should not be blocked from view on the internet. Once Multnomah County, the custodians of property records, authorized the City to display names, the City made the decision to make the names available on the internet through PortlandMaps.com.
To view the owner information, you need to search an address, then look under the Assessor link. As a compromise to privacy and safety concerns, users cannot search by owner’s name.
The city rationalizes that the information is public (and has been available by telephone or visit to the county office) and that it is a common practice in other jurisdictions (although I haven’t seen it available anywhere else in the Portland area).
Making taxpayer information readily available online isn’t a surprising move, but nothing in the About statement mentions displaying data from anything outside the City of Portland.
Nevertheless, it appears that Washington and Clackamas counties are also feeding owner information to PortlandMaps. I was a little surprised to see my name pop up since I live in Washington County. (I also need to let the county know my name is not ‘Don’.)
Links:
PortlandMaps.com privacy statement
[tags] Portland, Oregon, tax, assessor, PortlandMaps.com, real estate [/tags]
Photo by obo-bobolina, used under Creative Commons license.
