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Portland Real Estate Market Activity – January 2008
The reporting on January 2008 Portland real estate sale results is likely to send panic waves through the home seller community.
I mentioned Friday that housing inventory is up to 12.8 months supply–the highest level in seven years. This metric, which is calculated by dividing the active number of listings by the number of homes sold in the previous month, was driven high by unusually slow sales for the month (down 32% when compared to 2007). Pending sales for January are down by a third, too.
With those kind of numbers, it might seem surprising that year-over-year average appreciation is up 1.8% over 2007, and the month-over-month median is up a full percentage point from December. But Jeff Kempe correctly points out at the Oregonian’s Front Porch blog, that January sales numbers are the result of efforts sown in November and December pending sales.
From my vantage point, buyer traffic seems to be recovering–lots of showings, open house traffic, web hits. But the question is, when will buyers capitalize on bulging inventory? Or will fears of falling knives keep them at bay?
For January, the average sale price was $342,900 and the median (or middlemost value) was $280,000 for homes in the Portland metro area. Average time to market a home was 83 days (vs. 65 in Jan. 2007).
Below are the January 2008 results for average and median sale prices, appreciation, and time on market (or DOM*), sorted by average sale price.
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Apprec. | DOM |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $588,800 | $449,000 | 7.5% | 77 |
| West Portland | $503,100 | $399,000 | 4.6% | 89 |
| NW Washington County | $418,300 | $384,600 | 6.3% | 78 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $377,700 | $350,000 | 4.8% | 81 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $369,000 | $320,000 | -6.4% | 93 |
| Northeast Portland | $329,900 | $265,000 | 7.3% | 81 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $319,300 | $295,000 | 1.1% | 103 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $280,600 | $259,900 | 4.2% | 93 |
| Southeast Portland | $279,600 | $245,900 | 6.7% | 69 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $275,100 | $245,300 | 3.2% | 67 |
| North Portland | $268,100 | $250,200 | 8.3% | 76 |
| Yamhill County | $263,500 | $220,000 | 5.5% | 107 |
| Columbia County | $255,800 | $218,000 | 10.9% | 115 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $249,600 | $238,000 | 4.4% | 80 |
Source: RMLS, February 2008.
* Note: DOM or days on market may exhibit reporting inconsistencies and should be used to analyze trends only.
[tags] Portland, Oregon, real estate, market, results, 2008, appreciation, average, sale, prices, median [/tags]
Comments
6 Responses to “Portland Real Estate Market Activity – January 2008”
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potentially dumb question here…
Why is the Milwaukie/Clackamas area experiencing the only drop in housing prices in the Portland Metro?
Thanks!
Mike,
It’s not a dumb question at all.
The Milwaukie/Clackamas market area (as defined by the local multiple listing service) is heavily influenced by the activity in Happy Valley. That area was deemed a high-growth zone inside our urban growth boundary and construction has been hot and heavy for the past several years.
But builders overestimated demand and as the market slowed, an overhang of inventory resulted, which has hurt the resale prices of existing homes. Imagine trying to sell your 2-year old, 3,000 sq. ft. family home, when there is well over 18 months of similar inventory already on the market, much of it brand new.
Ron, is there a source that we laypeople can access that gives this (very interesting) quarterly or monthly data broken down by zip code, rather than simply by community?
Hank,
I don’t know of anyone breaking down RMLS stats by zipcode, but Trulia.com does compile figures from public sources.
Here’s an example (for 97015):
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Clackamas-Oregon/
In NE portland, the average and median prices are about 80k apart. Is there a way to look at a smaller price range (20K) most houses are selling at? For example, some sort of bell curve?
Adam,
I’m not sure I follow your question. If I throw out values below $170,000 and above $390,000 (outside the bulk of the bell curve), the January average was $280,500 and median was $270,000.
The previous range was $69,000 to $2.3M (Hayden Island). I can break this down to a specific neighborhood if that’s what you’re after (i.e. Grant Park, Piedmont, etc.)