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Maps Track Markets’ Foreclosure Risk
To date, excessive foreclosure activity in the Portland metro area has been kept bay, perhaps due to generally stable housing prices and less participation by Oregonians in riskier subprime mortgages than other national housing markets. (Note, I’m not saying we’re immune–just less affected.)
RealtyTrac.com is the default oracle for foreclosure information–showing Oregon at #24 nationally for foreclosure activity with 1,415 in January, up double that of January 2007.
Recently the the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released an interactive mortgage map for owner-occupied (non-investment) homes, tracking subprime and Alt-A loans.
Users can start with a view of the entire U.S. and drill down to state, county, and zipcode levels to view various risk areas such as percent of low FICO score loans, resetting adjustable rate mortgages, delinquencies, and foreclosures.
These interactive charts show the “regional variation in the condition of securitized, owner-occupied subprime, and alt-A mortgage loans” according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
You can check out the map here (or click the image). and read more about the Fed’s foreclosure resources for consumers.
To be honest, I did not see a lot of variation within the metro area to note. The data is to be updated monthly, so perhaps we’ll see more activity as ARMs reset and local housing inventory remains high. Perhaps the non-owner occupied properties are the lion’s share of defaults and won’t be reflected on the Fed’s map. A couple disturbing Oregon trends: 35% of subprime loans have had 1 payment late in 12 months, and 41% of subprime ARMS are resetting in 12 months.
(Hat tip to Mike Rohrig and Scott Bridwell.)
Comments
8 Responses to “Maps Track Markets’ Foreclosure Risk”
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Interesting map. I just wonder why they haven’t added in non-owner occupied properties. Unfortunately, without those, the larger picture of the foreclosure mess is a little distorted.
Some suburbs were basically built to attract that kind of mortgage. Maybe they’ll get the data in there eventually, though. Hopefully it will be in time for it still to be useful.
Anyway, thanks for the map. I wasn’t aware of the Fed putting out this information in an easy-to-use form. It gives a decent indication of where things may be headed in the near future.
Thanks for posting this. This is a very cool resource.
Also up until last month everyone here was above water and thus able to refinance their way out of trouble.
If the mortgage was adjusting and you couldn’t afford it – just roll it into another “affordability” (read : Suicide) product.
Now that property prices are dipping and the banks are pulling in their lending horns I’d expect to see our foreclosure rates escalate.
It takes quite a while from the date an owner quits paying through NOD to NOT and onto the court steps – so there will be a lag in the homedebtor feeling the pain and any indication from stats this is happening.
UG -
Definitely will be keeping an eye on it.
BTW – The title companies are all sponsoring “Short Sale” educational seminars for agents–several per month.
I’ve been playing with this map application and it seems the numbers are only reported at a state level, though the color coding changes. I downloaded the excel sheet they have which drills down to the county level. That provides much more information.
Paul,
You’re right…the number published in the right-hand table are state-level. You have to rely on the ‘heat-map’ colors in the detail maps to draw quick conclusions at the zipcode level.
Paul,
You can download the data set in Excel format at the county level and play with the data yourself if you like. Just click on the “for supporting data:” link.
[...] Wall Street Journal published an interactive map today that dovetails nicely with the map linked to by Ron Ares a couple days ago on foreclosure risks. It details by state delinquency (30-120 days past due) [...]