Comments on: Sneak Peek at March 2008 Results

By: Ron Ares

Ron Ares — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 23:44:55 +0000

UG,

Long time, no answer….sorry. I had to go to a pub and carve out some time to reply to comments…

There is no methodology change to how RMLS calculates pending sales…I just misunderstood it. They track sales that go pending in the month. I was counting all pending sales. Some of them apparently have lonnnnng closing times.

The SoCal/PDX curve trajectory looks similar…but in 6 months I don’t expect to see streets covered in FOR SALE signs and abandoned homes with squatters. Definitive recession and unemployment could change that, but that’s a different dynamic altogether.

By: Uncle_Git

Uncle_Git — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 16:49:01 +0000

Ron – I’d be curious what the new methodology entailed regarding the pending sales – surely something like that is pretty cut and dried ?

This is pretty much exactly what the state of play was in So Cal last spring – sellers listing at wishing prices and buyers staring going “Nuh uh – price falls coming”

I know you don’t agree with my take on us following SoCal trends – but you gotta admit there are some startling similarities in the way the cycle has progressed in both markets.

By: Ron Ares

Ron Ares — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 05:08:02 +0000

@Steve – I agree with your analysis. I suggested in an upcoming Oregonian interview (Thursday 4/10?) that sellers take their peak market price (as of July 2007) and subtract 5% if they need to sell quickly.

I appreciate the compliment, too.

By: Steve

Steve — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 04:43:58 +0000

The decreased sales coupled with stable prices suggest that sellers are holding out for last year’s prices while buyers are trying to price in future drops. That’s means a thinning market until either buyers are willing to pay more–unlikely given the torrent of “bad housing market” news–or sellers lower their prices (the apparent modest trend).

Separately, three cheers to Ron for such an informative, intelligent, and frank site (compare with NAR cant) .

By: Ron Ares

Ron Ares — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 04:35:48 +0000

@Laurel – I would prefer to see inventory clear and sellers get realistic about prices. We need to take our medicine for awhile. I wasn’t comforted at the flat year-over-year result–it actually declined from February.

By: Ron Ares

Ron Ares — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 04:25:49 +0000

@Rhonda – Who knew? The Little Professor was a gateway drug to the mortgage profession!

By: Laurel

Laurel — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 02:54:35 +0000

What is preferable, seeing sales drop way off and preserving the sale price, or selling more properties at a lower price? Maybe sales have stalled because sellers are not understanding that they will have to lower their prices to move property.

It’s cold comfort that the average price is slightly up. All it means is that some high end places may have moved.

By: Rhonda Porter

Rhonda Porter — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 00:12:58 +0000

OMG what a flash back…I had a “Little Professor” calculator and loved it…perhaps that was the tool that caused me to enter the mortgage profession.