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And by Ron Ares, re:PDX founder / editor and marketing specialist.
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April Showers Bring…More Showers
Anyone hoping for a spring bounce to the Portland area real estate market will likely be disappointed when ‘official’ numbers are released around the 15th.
Except, perhaps, active buyers looking to time the market to their advantage.
As of this afternoon, April 2008 unit sales were running at about 57% of April 2007’s result. By the time all the April lingering data gets entered over the next few days, the result will likely just reach the 60% mark. (Pending sales for April 2008 are down 38% from last years monthly total, so May’s sales result will look familiar.)
And it seems the doldrums are starting to have their effect on sales pricing (finally). The average sale price for the current results is $324,300 (vs. $336,700 last month and $338,200 last April). The median will come in around $275,000 (vs. $286,500 last month and $285,000 last April).
Inventory is growing, with active listings up 1,000 from the beginning of April to start May with 16,400 homes.
The numbers will likely change a little once RMLS scrubs the data, but you get the idea.
Photo by jekkyl, used under Creative Commons license.
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7 Responses to “April Showers Bring…More Showers”
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Hi, Ron!
Curious: are you using areas 141-156? I’m posting Terradatum numbers in the morning – they pull from RMLS a little after midnight – and everything comports but the pending sales: I see down only 24% rather than 38%. Any idea the discrepancy?
Jeff
Yup, 141-156 (for non-RMLS members, the Portland metro areas + Yamhill County + Columbia County + Mt. Hood).
I found 1,865 pending sales for April 1-30 as of 3:00 pm Friday. Five moved to SOLD (presumably) by 9:00 pm. My numbers show 1,865 vs. 2,998 for April 2007.
I hoisted myself by me-own petard last month re: Pending Sales. Perhaps, I still continue to intepret them different that everyone else.
Pending: status = pending, but not closed between April 1 and April 30?
I may have missed it, but did you mention the Case-Schiller numbers released on Tuesday? Portland prices were down 1.4% from January to February and down 2% over the last 12 months. The import of the press release was that the 20 MSA’s, including Portland, will likely experience further declines.
@ Steve & UG -
I did not report on the CS numbers, only because they had been widely reported elsewhere and I was busy early this week.
The CS numbers are two months in arrears in reporting and they are a broad indicator of the market (no new construction etc.). The CS numbers aren’t particularly helpful to me or individual clients I represent due to those factors.
Nevertheless, they are a bellwether of the market and I am confirming trends with fresher data that average & median pricing is down, inventory continues to climb, and sales are sluggish.
I mentioned the ‘bounce’ of spring sales because most expect higher volumes in April, May, June, but the trendline continues to be off 35-40% YTD over 2007. I have mentioned that several times, including in the Oregonian.
Thanks, Ron!
Hmmm…
Terradatum this morning shows 2205 pending, which would be significant: the most monthly pending sales since August, though still down a little less than 24% from last April. I checked RMLS and see the same number as you, but I think the 247 ’sold’ are included as well since they went pending during the month. That would bring the total to 2108, a little closer.
I wonder if Terradatum includes homes that went pending but failed and went back on the market?
I dunno Jeff. We independent brokers don’t have access to the fancy tools you franchise guys have. I’m using an abacus and chalk
[...] Portland Realtors are getting their market update from RMLS and the results mirror my early reporting. [...]