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National Housing Numbers vs. Portland’s Performance
A couple national reports compare major metro real estate markets and for the moment, Portland remains among the stronger performers–news that will ring hollow to many local home sellers.
Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller report for May 2008 pegs the one-year average price decline at -15.5% across its 20-city index, while Portland registers as the 4th strongest market over the past 12 months at -5.2%.
| City |
April 08
vs. May 08 (1 month change) |
May 07
vs. May 08 (1 year change) |
| Charlotte |
1.35%
|
-0.20%
|
| Dallas |
1.25%
|
-3.10%
|
| Denver |
1.23%
|
-4.80%
|
| Portland |
0.66%
|
-5.20%
|
| Boston |
1.66%
|
-6.20%
|
| Seattle |
-0.90%
|
-6.30%
|
| Atlanta |
0.80%
|
-7.90%
|
| New York |
-0.90%
|
-7.90%
|
| Cleveland |
-0.67%
|
-8.00%
|
| Chicago |
-0.41%
|
-9.40%
|
| Minneapolis |
0.79%
|
-14.80%
|
| Washington DC |
-1.91%
|
-15.40%
|
| Detroit |
-1.15%
|
-17.40%
|
| Tampa |
-1.36%
|
-20.20%
|
| San Francisco |
-1.93%
|
-22.90%
|
| San Diego |
-2.53%
|
-23.20%
|
| Los Angeles |
-3.93%
|
-24.50%
|
| Phoenix |
-4.01%
|
-26.50%
|
| Miami |
-7.23%
|
-28.30%
|
| Las Vegas |
-4.85%
|
-28.40%
|
| 20 City Average |
-1.46%
|
-15.50%
|
In other housing news today, the Wall Street Journal reports that Portland has the 2nd fastest growing housing inventory (27.8% growth over 1 year ago) in their 28 market index, but is still half that of Las Vegas.
Interestingly, at just 3%, Portland has the 6th lowest number of overdue loan payments in WSJ’s quarterly metro area index. Here’s a link to their interactive table and a link to the article.
Read It While You’re Packing Up Your Stuff
A quote from this Jon Stewart interview with Richard Bitner, a former subprime mortgage wholesaler and writer of Confessions of a Subprime Lender — An Insider’s Tale of Greed, Fraud and Ignorance.
Nothing really new in this interview about the subprime debacle, but Stewart manages to make it entertaining. Regarding governmental oversight (or the lack thereof), and the role Wall Street played:
Bitner: “And when you leave the guys who are holding the money in charge of making the rules…”
Stewart: “You have a casino!”
Link to Comedy Central video with Jon Stewart. Note: Comedy Central video links often expire, so if you’re reading this long after it’s publication date and there’s no video, that’s the problem.
June 2008 Portland Real Estate Market Stats Wrap-Up
From RMLS’s official release yesterday:
| June 2008 | May 2008 | June 2007 | |
| Median Sale Price | $289,000 | $287,500 | $295,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $348,800 | $335,000 | $352,400 |
| Closed Sales | 1,877 | 1,863 | 2,731 |
| Pending Sales | 1,996 | 2,124 | 2,852 |
| New Listings | 5,213 | 5,182 | 6,231 |
| Active Listings | 17,788 | 17,066 | 13,752 |
| Average Market Time | 76 days | 72 days | 55 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 9.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 |
If you’re measuring from the peak median price set in August 2007, prices are down a little under 4%, but standing inventory going into the late summer/fall will be the telling tale for where prices are headed. Stay tuned…
In the meantime, here’s how Portland’s various market areas break down, year-to-date:
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | DOM |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $553,800 | $455,000 | 4.3% | 74 |
| West Portland | $483,900 | $399,000 | 4.9% | 78 |
| NW Washington County | $399,300 | $375,000 | 2.7% | 79 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $363,500 | $332,500 | -0.6% | 81 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $332,300 | $292,200 | -8.0% | 72 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $328,900 | $289,000 | 1.6% | 92 |
| Northeast Portland | $326,000 | $280,000 | 6.7% | 54 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $283,500 | $259,900 | -0.5% | 85 |
| Southeast Portland | $281,400 | $247,800 | 2.1% | 62 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $279,700 | $251,600 | 1.3% | 79 |
| Yamhill County | $273,500 | $227,000 | 1.7% | 106 |
| North Portland | $271,300 | $255,000 | 5.7% | 62 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $265,600 | $248,000 | -1.1% | 87 |
| Columbia County | $234,400 | $220,800 | 0.9% | 113 |
Source: RMLS, July 2008.
Week Links – July 14, 2008
Happy Bastille Day! (Needed something to celebrate today…may as well choose a French holiday…)
Without further adieu (ahem), here is a rundown of recent real estate news, both national and local to the Portland area.
Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae get a lifeline – What does it mean for you?
Overshadowing the Fed takeover of IndyMac Bank over the weekend, the Fed steps in to shore up mortgage insurers Freddy and Fannie. Dan Green of The Mortgage Reports looks at it from the consumer viewpoint.
Homes selling much faster in Portland than national average
According to Altos Research, as noted in this US News and World Report blog post. At 79 days on average to sell a home, Portland is the third-lowest city in the index, a full 30 days faster than the 10-city composite, and averaging half the time it takes to sell in Miami.
McMenamins score more real estate holdings
Portland’s Brew Bros. have redeveloped a poor farm, a buncha old theaters, derelict schools, and even a mausoleum into family-friendly brewpubs. This time it’s reportedly Portland’s (in)famous gay bathhouse district. What will they think of next?
If it’s 2008, where’s my rocketpack?
Last, here’s how the National Association of Realtors in 1991 thought we would be buying houses by the year 2000 (opens new window).
Link to NAR’s Peek into the future of Real Estate
I wonder what purpose NAR had in creating the video. I half expected Woody Allen to show up in one of the scenes, being chased by a bioengineered, hydroponic banana*.
C’est tout, mes amis!
Painting by Jean-Pierre Houël.
* Sleeper reference.
June 2008 Results: Treading Water
More early analysis of Portland’s June 2008 real estate market results.
I noted last week that unit sales were basically flat from the previous month, but down 32% from June 2007.
Despite discouraging economic news, prices remain resilient in the face of rising inventory. The median price for June will be approximately* $288,000, which is down 2.4% from June 2007’s $295,000 result. The average sale price will be in the $349,900 range, less than a percentage point down from last year ($352,400).
Compared to May, the median is up marginally, and the average rose about 4%.
Available inventory is still in the 9.5 months’ range, with nearly 17,600 active listings on the market. I have heard that June’s pending sales were very strong, but don’t have any first-hand data to support that.
* Note – These numbers will likely shift a little when RMLS puts out their report in a week. I’ll update each market area at that time.
Photo courtesy of fatniu, used under Creative Commons license.
No Real Fireworks in Portland June Real Estate Activity
We’re off for a few days at the coast (after a few more showings this morning), but I thought I’d pass along some early June sales numbers.
In what’s starting to sound like a broken record, it appears total sold units will again be down again in the 30 to 33% range compared to 1 year ago. To date, 1,833 homes show a status of SOLD, compared to 2,731 in June 2007.
How that will affect standing inventory and sale prices will require heavier lifting (which I will do early next week), but Jeff Kempe has highlighted some extrapolations at his site.
Until then, unplug and enjoy family, friends, and our fair city this holiday weekend!
Photo by ShutterSparks, used under Creative Commons license.
