Comments on: Portland’s Market Time Stats to Increase — Dramatically http://repdx.com/2008/09/11/portlands-market-time-stats-to-increase-dramatically/ Portland Oregon Real Estate Search Fri, 13 Jan 2012 20:31:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: dui http://repdx.com/2008/09/11/portlands-market-time-stats-to-increase-dramatically/comment-page-1/#comment-624 dui Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:29:34 +0000 http://www.repdx.com/?p=379#comment-624 Of course it's silly trying to call the bottom, but I think the housing market is still headed headed for deeper waters. I don't think we've had capitulation yet and people are not jumping off the third story yet. Of course it’s silly trying to call the bottom, but I think the housing market is still headed headed for deeper waters. I don’t think we’ve had capitulation yet and people are not jumping off the third story yet.

]]> By: Portland Oregon Real Estate Agent Blog » Portland Real Estate Market Results - August 2008 Final http://repdx.com/2008/09/11/portlands-market-time-stats-to-increase-dramatically/comment-page-1/#comment-622 Portland Oregon Real Estate Agent Blog » Portland Real Estate Market Results - August 2008 Final Mon, 15 Sep 2008 20:48:12 +0000 http://www.repdx.com/?p=379#comment-622 [...] really, does it take to sell a house in the Portland area? The answer: 121 days, according to the new Total Market Time measure* released this [...] [...] really, does it take to sell a house in the Portland area? The answer: 121 days, according to the new Total Market Time measure* released this [...]

]]> By: JP http://repdx.com/2008/09/11/portlands-market-time-stats-to-increase-dramatically/comment-page-1/#comment-623 JP Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:44:47 +0000 http://www.repdx.com/?p=379#comment-623 Any guesses as to what the Total Market Time numbers will be? 183. Any guesses as to what the Total Market Time numbers will be?

183.

]]> By: JP http://repdx.com/2008/09/11/portlands-market-time-stats-to-increase-dramatically/comment-page-1/#comment-621 JP Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:41:18 +0000 http://www.repdx.com/?p=379#comment-621 It should be clear that the old days on market, as well as the new days on market, is bounded from below at zero. In other words there is no way to have negative days on market. While the old days on market is not theoretically bounded from above, neither is the new system. In other words, no matter how large of a time on market I pick, all sellers could stick with a single listing (the old measure) for longer. The new system is no different, in that there is no theoretical upper bound. This by no means says that there is not a practical upper bound. For example we all finite life spans, and the expected value of the remaining life span must be considered. From an investment management perspective, one might take a life cycle approach. In any event, under the old system I had suggested that a practical upper bound to the DOM was about 90. Yes, some listings last longer than 90 days, but some homes sell in the first day. Also when a seller switched agents, the clock reset. What's a practical time for a person to switch agents (again, there really is no upper limit here, but there are practical realities)? For the last eight months the DOM has been above 70. Using my 90 days as a practical maximum, this suggested that the DOM was near maximum. In the interest of transparency, I would like to see one of two things: 1. The old system continued for 12 months. 2. Using the new system restate the DOM back for at least 12 months. It should be clear that the old days on market, as well as the new days on market, is bounded from below at zero. In other words there is no way to have negative days on market.

While the old days on market is not theoretically bounded from above, neither is the new system. In other words, no matter how large of a time on market I pick, all sellers could stick with a single listing (the old measure) for longer. The new system is no different, in that there is no theoretical upper bound. This by no means says that there is not a practical upper bound. For example we all finite life spans, and the expected value of the remaining life span must be considered. From an investment management perspective, one might take a life cycle approach.

In any event, under the old system I had suggested that a practical upper bound to the DOM was about 90. Yes, some listings last longer than 90 days, but some homes sell in the first day. Also when a seller switched agents, the clock reset. What’s a practical time for a person to switch agents (again, there really is no upper limit here, but there are practical realities)? For the last eight months the DOM has been above 70. Using my 90 days as a practical maximum, this suggested that the DOM was near maximum.

In the interest of transparency, I would like to see one of two things:

1. The old system continued for 12 months.
2. Using the new system restate the DOM back for at least 12 months.

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