Comments on: Some Good and Bad in Portland’s Housing News

By: Thesa Chambers, Broker Licensed in Oregon

Thesa Chambers, Broker Licensed in Oregon — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:53:48 +0000

Ron – our market follows yours – with a large percentage of our buyers coming from your area for second homes – I think we both will see a better 2009

By: Ron Ares

Ron Ares — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 00:08:53 +0000

I can always count on JP for some Stats 101. Makes me want to dig out the college textbook from storage so I can keep up

Here’s the raw unit sales in September:
2008: ~1,500+
2007: 1,866

My point was that unit sales had been down 35% month after month compared to the previous year. I would have expected to see a little over 1,200 homes given that trend and the seasonality.

I’ll know more about how pricing fared next week.

UG – you’re mixing your metaphors…trains and parties ?

By: Uncle_Git

Uncle_Git — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 23:50:07 +0000

JP has it correct – you can hit the bottom sales wise and prices still tumble for a long, long time – see for example So Cal at the moment – they’ve actually seen an uptick in sales YOY – but prices are still in freefall.

By: JP

JP — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 23:39:23 +0000

What’s about 80% of 65%?

A: About 50%. In other words if the 80% estimate is correct, then sales will be about 50% in count as two years ago.

Also once you hit bottom you have no where to go but up. That being said, up would be more than 1.00 of last year’s sales. At 0.80 we are still falling, albeit not as fast, but we are bounded by zero.

By: Uncle_Git

Uncle_Git — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:38:32 +0000

Tom’s numbers are pretty interesting – I’ve always contended that our reset blowup would be later than the rest of the country because we were late to the party.

Here comes the train…

It’s going to be really fascinating to see how we go through the winter – I’m seeing a bit more price movement to the downside lately – and the internet tracking sites seem to support this theory.