-
Your Hosts
Brought to you by Lori Ares, home-buyer specialist and broker licensed with M Realty LLC. Read more...
Contact: (503) 936-4192
And by Ron Ares, re:PDX founder / editor and marketing specialist.
Follow Along
Subscribe in a reader
Portland Real Estate Market Results – October 2008 Final
Final numbers for the Portland metro area real estate are available today from RMLS. My thoughts about the results:
A one-month rise in median and average pricing: Well, it’s a small sample (only 1,465 homes sold in the month), so I’m not surprised to see the prices tick up. The median and average sale prices were up 3.0% from September. But one month does not make a trend.
Declining Inventory: Slowly, ever so slowly, homes are selling, expiring, or being withdrawn. The metro area ends the month with 750 fewer homes on the market than in September. Still at the pace of sales shown last month, there are over 11 months of housing inventory available.
Warning Signs: Pending sales, down to just 1,248—a 25% drop from a month ago. Although part of the seasonal pattern, there were also 10% fewer sales compared to last month.
Central neighborhood continue to outperform suburbs: North, Northeast, and Southeast Portland markets show the shortest market times (< 100 days) and the best price stability. North and Northeast Portland, along with Lake Oswego / West Linn, and Downtown / West Portland show 12-month rolling average appreciation when compared to the previous 12-month period.
October 2008 Market Activity, vs. September 2008 and October 2007
| October 2008 | September 2008 | October 2007 | |
| Median Sale Price | $275,000 | $267,000 | $287,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $324,300 | $315,300 | $341,800 |
| Closed Sales | 1,465 | 1,640 | 1,866 |
| Pending Sales | 1,268 | 1,705 | 2,098 |
| New Listings | 3,605 | 4,200 | 4,597 |
| Active Listings | 16,257 | 17,006 | 15,567 |
| Total Market Time * | 127 days | 129 days | |
| Inventory (in months) | 11.1 | 10.4 | 8.4 |
Here’s how Portland’s various market areas break down, year-to-date:
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $550,500 | $453,700 | 3.6% | 187 |
| West Portland | $482,900 | $395,000 | 5.0% | 155 |
| NW Washington County | $405,500 | $376,500 | -0.7% | 129 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $356,300 | $325,000 | -3.9% | 147 |
| Northeast Portland | $324,300 | $283,800 | 2.0% | 89 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $323,200 | $285,500 | -5.4% | 133 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $316,200 | $282,000 | -4.8% | 162 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $281,900 | $259,900 | -5.0% | 113 |
| Southeast Portland | $278,200 | $245,000 | -2.2% | 96 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $275,600 | $250,600 | -4.2% | 121 |
| Yamhill County | $269,000 | $225,000 | -4.7% | 118 |
| North Portland | $268,400 | $252,200 | 2.2% | 91 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $260,500 | $245,000 | -5.7% | 142 |
| Columbia County | $228,600 | $214,000 | -8.9% | 148 |
Source: RMLS, November 2008.
* Total Market Time – the number of days from when a property is listed to when an offer is accepted on that same property. If a property is re-listed within 31 days, Total Market Time continues to accrue; however, it does not include the time it was off the market. The old Average Market Time measured the days a listing number was active–not taking into account re-listings.
Comments
8 Responses to “Portland Real Estate Market Results – October 2008 Final”
Leave a Reply
My hope is that all the markets see a resurgence soon. Portland seems to be doing OK, I just hope it is the first step in a new surge of home buying.
More of that ‘Stats 101′ as you might call it.
Did you notice that the change in closed sales is larger than the increase in average price? This is driving the total sales volume down (total sales volume = quantity of closed sales * average selling price), which is what REALTOR commissions are based. October 2007 total sales volume was about $637M. For October 2008 the total sales volume was about $475M, or about 75% of $637M. In other words, if it is fair to assume that the weighted average commission did not change in percentage terms, then the total REALTOR commissions took a 25% cut.
Also while the average price was lower in September 2008, at about $517M, the total sales volume was greater.
Total sales volume is going down in large part because sales are approaching zero. That’s what’s driving the inventory in months so high.
As pointed out, the pending quantity of sales is very low. My guess is that the total sales volume will be about $350M for November.
Do average selling prices really matter as the number of sales approach zero?
JP,
I don’t know what Realtor commissions have to do with all this, but, no, I don’t think average selling prices matter with such a small sample size.
The ’sample’ is the population of all MLS sales. And even if we treat it as a sample, the sample is sufficiently large to have a relatively small margin of error.
But really, you are comical that you don’t know about how REALTOR commissions is related to all of this. So many of your comrades suggest that the commission structure ensures that a good job is done–a higher total earned commission for a higher sales price. With total commissions going down, what environment does that create for future sales?
The funniest part is the idea that average prices somehow are related to how much an average seller could sell for. With 11 months of inventory, the average seller isn’t selling in today’s market.
We can only hope for better times in the future, but I don’t see too much good in the numbers that continue to be published.
“With 11 months of inventory, the average seller isn’t selling in today’s market.”
IMO, the buyers are not “average” either.
How far are we off the August 2007 peak? That is the number I am watching as a buyer.
Marcus,
Both the average and median price are down 9% from the peak.
Avg: $355K vs $324K
Med: $302K vs $275K
Thanks Ron. Great blog