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re:PDX is written by Ron Ares, broker and market analyst affiliated with M Realty LLC in Portland, Oregon.
Phone: 503-460-7992
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News To End The Year On
Notice I didn’t qualify whether it was good or bad news.
October Case-Schiller Index
At one time eagerly anticipated, but now dreaded, the last Tuesday of each month brings the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, which measures U.S. home prices going back to 1988.
In looking at October 2008 results, Portland joins the double-digit loss club, along with Seattle and Atlanta as first-timers. Portland showed a 10.1% year-over-year decline in home values when compared to October 2007.
The national average is -18.0% for the 20-city index, taking average prices back to March 2004 valuations. It is the sharpest annual decline yet in the study’s history. Las Vegas, Phoenix, and San Francisco are all down over 30% in value over 1 year.
The Case-Shiller data (looking at data compiled from 2 months back) shouldn’t be a shock to regular readers. Similar results have been reported here using the multiple listing data. I would expect November and December reports to show similar trajectory into the negative.
December performance
As the year closes, the early warning indicator of low pending sales numbers from the past few months is showing up as corresponding low closed sales for November and now, December.
As of December 29, only 674 homes had sold throughout the Portland metro area and only 688 homes became sale pending during the month. November had 1,041 closed sales by comparison, which was the lowest number since 1993.
Perhaps there will be a significant month-end crush of closings due to last week’s weather, but I suspect the total sold count will be well under 1,000 homes. I will run early December numbers around January 5.
UPDATE 9:15 am – Nifty chart from NY Times (login required), hat-tip to Ryan Frank at The Oregonian’s Front Porch blog.
A White, Albeit Slushy, Christmas in PDX
Merry Christmas to you and yours from re:PDX.
As you can see from the NASA image below, we’ve been under the weather (coined the Snowpocalypse by PDX Twitter users).
About 12 to 18 inches of snow, ice, snow, ice, and now some thawing–which will lead to some unstable Christmas travel in and around Portland.
A fitting end to a, frankly, weird year. More on that after Christmas.
For now, enjoy the Eve and the Day, count your blessings, cherish your loved ones, and receive tidings of comfort and joy from yours truly.
Hat tip to PAgent at OurPDXNetwork for the NASA image and link.
Portland Real Estate Results – November 2008
RMLS released the November 2008 report and it corroborates what I had reported last week — weak unit sales and falling sale prices.
Year-over-year average sale prices are down 10.5% from 1 year ago, and the median value is off by 7%. As a percentage of 2007’s rate, the total number of sales is down 32% (consistently all year). Fortunately, new listings are down 8.3%, but that doesn’t help the absorption rate much. At this pace of sales, the market has 15 months of active listings–easily the highest that I could find in RMLS records going back to 2000.
Closed sales in November were the lowest since February 1993 and pending sales for the month were the lowest since 1997.
From the peak market of July / August 2007, median and average sale prices are off 12-13%. Values are roughly equivalent to March 2006.
November 2008 Market Activity, vs. October 2008 and November 2007
| November 2008 | October 2008 | November 2007 | |
| Median Sale Price | $265,000 | $275,000 | $285,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $308,300 | $324,300 | $344,500 |
| Closed Sales | 1,041 | 1,465 | 1,733 |
| Pending Sales | 1,108 | 1,268 | 1,623 |
| New Listings | 2,687 | 3,605 | 3,369 |
| Active Listings | 15,611 | 16,257 | 14,435 |
| Total Market Time * | 135 days | 127 days | |
| Inventory (in months) | 15.0 | 11.1 | 8.3 |
Here’s how Portland’s various market areas break down, year-to-date:
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $543,300 | $450,000 | 0.4% | 182 |
| West Portland | $480,700 | $395,000 | 4.2% | 145 |
| NW Washington County | $404,900 | $376,000 | -1.7% | 152 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $354,200 | $324,900 | -4.8% | 144 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $322,200 | $287,900 | -4.6% | 155 |
| Northeast Portland | $322,000 | $282,000 | 0.5% | 98 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $316,300 | $282,300 | -5.6% | 172 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $280,300 | $257,800 | -5.9% | 124 |
| Southeast Portland | $276,800 | $245,000 | -3.1% | 109 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $274,900 | $250,000 | -4.8% | 155 |
| Yamhill County | $268,600 | $225,000 | -4.6% | 134 |
| North Portland | $266,100 | $250,000 | 0.1% | 120 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $260,700 | $245,000 | -6.4% | 128 |
| Columbia County | $229,400 | $214,000 | -9.9% | 126 |
Source: RMLS, December 2008.
* Total Market Time – the number of days from when a property is listed to when an offer is accepted on that same property. If a property is re-listed within 31 days, Total Market Time continues to accrue; however, it does not include the time it was off the market. The old Average Market Time measured the days a listing number was active–not taking into account re-listings.
Early Peek at November 2008 Market Results
I took an early snapshot of Portland’s November real estate market activity and it was pretty meager.
Only 1,015 homes sold in the month. That is the fewest sold in any given month going back to February 1993. This isn’t just a seasonal pattern. By comparison, for the Novembers in 2005-2007, home sales averaged 2,173.
The median price will come in around $266,000, the lowest median price going back to March 2006. The average should end up around $309,000. These numbers are 12-13% off the peak pricing of July – August 2007.
I will explain next week why (and for whom) this is good news.
RMLS will publish final numbers late next week or around the 15th, so come back to hear about pending sales, active inventory, and more.
Photo by Liquid Paper, used under Creative Commons license.
CBS’ The Amazing Race Sprints to Finish in Portland
Hardly real estate oriented news today, but Portland scenery voyeurs will enjoy seeing extended coverage of our fair city this weekend as the season finale of CBS’ The Amazing Race airs Sunday, December 7 at 8:00.
The footage was shot back in May, but my in-depth DVR scanning on the tightly edited preview for this week shows scenes in downtown, plus the big sprint to the finish at what appears to be Pittock Mansion.
My contact with the Pittock Mansion Society would neither confirm or deny the rumor.
From the CBS site:
Racers are challenged with a course used to confront fears in Oregon’s most dangerous business: logging. One racer helplessly watches from the ground as their teammate struggles with a fear of heights up above. Teams ride a 2,000 foot zip line across the Columbia River. Racers compete neck and neck in a nail-biting competition that tests their memory of events from the entire race. Teams beg Portland locals to help them find the place where “the magic is in the hole.” After a race of nearly 40,000 miles across five continents, one of three final teams will cross the finish line first to be declared winners of THE AMAZING RACE and take home 1 MILLION DOLLARS.
