I am still waiting to hear who is helped by leftward shift of the demand curve. (Normally I don’t use graphs, but it is so pervasive in economics that it seems appropriate here).

The official RMLS numbers will be out soon.

“I think Portland has a good chance of remaining somewhat more insulated than other parts of the US.”

Care to explain why?

There are two things on the modification issue that bug me. One is the low number of people that are actually being helped and the other is that high # of second default you mentioned. I hadn’t heard the exact # but had heard it was high. So many people were given loans they simply couldn’t afford and they are now simply getting another loan they still can’t afford.
This is one of those don’t get me started subjects. How about FHA Secure that was designed for homeowners in trouble. You can’t get the loan unless you are in trouble and most lenders won’t approve the loan if you have a Mortgage slow. Go figure. We are just unloading our Congressional shotguns on some of this stuff and missing our target. I will say that it is a beautiful thing however when you see someone get modified that it does rescue from foreclosure, especially those that didn’t wedge themselves into something they couldn’t afford or speculated or worse yet lied. The 41% left over I guess are pretty precious.

On the Portland Realestate-topia Q. I think Portland has a good chance of remaining somewhat more insulated than other parts of the US. We often do have higher unemployment #’s than the rest of the US even during real estate growth periods. It is a wild card though. I don’t doubt that the jobs numbers are going to be bleak going forward and the historical correlation between jobs and rates (and real estate) are undeniable. We can compare this period to any number of periods statistically however it just aint so. This situation is different and very new. We can get some bearing from history and economic theory but this is one strange time in our world. I am betting that unemployment continues to look Poooopy to Pooopier (howz that for technical?) and we still see the start of a housing recovery or at the least stabilization while it peaks.
I think the same Economy on Crack or more accurately Real Estate Economy on Crack is going to be revived by some of the same drugs that inflamed it. It is sort of looking like economic Methadone for a Heroine Housing addiction. Albeit artificial and possibly temporary, all of the intervention including the modifications, forcing rates lower by purchasing Mortgage debt etc. will or is bringing about the correction; it just may not bring about a real cure.

58% of Modified Mortgages Re-default after 8 Months: Why are Loan Modifications not Working?

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released data today showing that over half of modified mortgages are back in default after only 6 months. More startling data is that 36 percent of the borrowers re-defaulted after only 3 months. What this is telling us is that modifications are not helping to buffer the housing market in any significant measure.

http://www.mybudget360.com/58-of-modified-mortgages-re-default-after-8-months-why-are-loan-modifications-not-working/

How do you think all these lay-offs are going to effect housing? Or is Portland still residing in that special immunity bubble?!

The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) a central banking system operating as a quasi-public entity was created in 1913 by the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act. The FDIC was created in 1933 in response to thousands of bank failures, which today is still an entity whose existence is debatable.

As for real estate bottoming because of buying by early investors; I would look at Japan for historical reference. One could also look to the past “dot com” buying as the market stabilized then tanked washing out the “catching a falling knife investors.” The bottom is always hindsight. To call a bottom is speculation, which might be true but I am not that much of a speculator or gambler. I will always follow the motto “the trend is your friend,” and I will always invest with the trend in any market.

Best of luck to you, Stuart, I hope you are right.

I’d love to know how those inventory numbers are indicating a bottom ?

Maybe a bottom as far as sales numbers go – but we’ve a long road ahead with inventory still elevated and foreclosures on the rise.

FWIW the MBA mortgage application numbers are bogus – people had locked rates and then we got a hard down spike in rates so they simply reapplied to get the new, now lower rates… One buyer – two mortgage apps – I’d have thought you would have seen some of this yourself as a mortgage broker ?

I guess I’ll mark this down as the start of the real estate biz PR campaign praying to stimulate a “spring bounce” though…

You’re too funny.

“Values are up. Yes it is only a little and one month does not make a trend but a bounce is a bounce. Don’t ignore it.”

Uh, maybe you didn’t bother to read what this blog entry is about, but values are down.

I don’t know if you are calling the bottom in terms of number of sales, average price, median price, or some combination of these, but I’ll mark you down as calling the bottom as of today.

(Even if you are the lucky one who actually did call the bottom at the right point, I would like to say I have heard these bottom calls by a whole host of people, including owners, buyers, sellers, mortgage brokers, REALTORs, and so on, for the last two to three years. Don’t get me wrong, you are two to three years closer in time than those others.)

Hopefully the economy, in general, will improve sooner rather than later.

Again, thanks for the laugh.