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re:PDX is written by Ron Ares, broker and market analyst affiliated with M Realty LLC in Portland, Oregon.
Phone: 503-460-7992
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News To End The Year On
Notice I didn’t qualify whether it was good or bad news.
October Case-Schiller Index
At one time eagerly anticipated, but now dreaded, the last Tuesday of each month brings the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, which measures U.S. home prices going back to 1988.
In looking at October 2008 results, Portland joins the double-digit loss club, along with Seattle and Atlanta as first-timers. Portland showed a 10.1% year-over-year decline in home values when compared to October 2007.
The national average is -18.0% for the 20-city index, taking average prices back to March 2004 valuations. It is the sharpest annual decline yet in the study’s history. Las Vegas, Phoenix, and San Francisco are all down over 30% in value over 1 year.
The Case-Shiller data (looking at data compiled from 2 months back) shouldn’t be a shock to regular readers. Similar results have been reported here using the multiple listing data. I would expect November and December reports to show similar trajectory into the negative.
December performance
As the year closes, the early warning indicator of low pending sales numbers from the past few months is showing up as corresponding low closed sales for November and now, December.
As of December 29, only 674 homes had sold throughout the Portland metro area and only 688 homes became sale pending during the month. November had 1,041 closed sales by comparison, which was the lowest number since 1993.
Perhaps there will be a significant month-end crush of closings due to last week’s weather, but I suspect the total sold count will be well under 1,000 homes. I will run early December numbers around January 5.
UPDATE 9:15 am – Nifty chart from NY Times (login required), hat-tip to Ryan Frank at The Oregonian’s Front Porch blog.
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