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2008 Portland Real Estate Market Results
Fittingly, Portland’s 2008 real estate market ended smothered under an 18-inch blanket of snow, bringing a (un)merciful end to one of the poorest performing years recorded.
December 2008 results
Whether it was the weather or simply buyer reluctance, December 2008 goes on record among the poorest performing months that RMLS has recorded. The 987 closed sales is the lowest mark since February 1992. January is not shaping up to be much better with just 810 pending sales recorded (December 2007 generated 1,231 pending sales by comparison).
The market correction has given back approximately 2 years worth of gains and is now down about 16% from the peak values of August 2007.
Despite the paucity of sales, canceled/expired/withdrawn inventory left the market with a slightly lower ratio of listings than in November–about 14 months’ supply, or 13,882 homes for sale at years’ end.
| December 2008 | November 2008 | December 2007 | |
| Median Sale Price | $252,900 | $265,000 | $276,500 |
| Average Sale Price | $300,300 | $308,300 | $352,000 |
| Closed Sales | 987 | 1,041 | 1,496 |
| Pending Sales | 810 | 1,108 | 1,231 |
| New Listings | 1,880 | 2,687 | 2,276 |
| Active Listings | 13,882 | 15,611 | 12,786 |
| Total Market Time * | 138 days | 135 days | n/a |
| Inventory (in months) | 14.1 | 15.0 | 8.5 |
2008 Final Results
Looking at year-over-year results, average sale prices are down 15% and the median (or middlemost) price is down 9%. The table below compiles 12 months of results and compares it to the previous 12 months. Generally speaking, the close-in areas fared better than the suburbs. Compared to 2007, closed sales in units ended the year 32% lower, and down 35% in dollar volume ($6.3 billion vs. $9.7 billion).
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $541,600 | $452,600 | -4.5% | 209 |
| West Portland / City Center | $478,500 | $390,000 | 1.9% | 172 |
| NW Washington County | $404,800 | $375,000 | -3.4% | 117 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $352,600 | $323,000 | -5.9% | 162 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $318,400 | $284,900 | -4.6% | 125 |
| Northeast Portland | $320,000 | $280,000 | -0.4% | 109 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $313,500 | $280,000 | -5.0% | 169 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $277,800 | $255,000 | -6.7% | 127 |
| Southeast Portland | $276,100 | $245,000 | -3.3% | 108 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $273,800 | $250,000 | -4.4% | 121 |
| Yamhill County | $266,800 | $225,000 | -5.2% | 171 |
| North Portland | $266,100 | $250,000 | -0.1% | 104 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $258,700 | $245,000 | -8.2% | 145 |
| Columbia County | $230,700 | $214,000 | -9.0% | 189 |
The new year will undoubtedly start slow, with the aforementioned pending sale figures being a leading indicator. Will a new President, a hopeful (wishful?) outlook on a new year, and the incentive of locking in low mortgage rates regenerate a flagging housing market? With unemployment on the rise and continued economic uncertainty, only time will tell.
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On The Hunt for a New Home? Try Searching on a Neighborhood Map
UPDATE: The home search feature discussed in this post is now integrated with re:PDX. Just click the Home Search link in the top menu.
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Earlier, I alluded to some changes going into the new year and here’s the first—a new, upgraded real estate search feature.
Since re:PDX is getting a makeover, it will be some time before it’s integrated into this site, but you can use it now at my independent search site, findportlandhouses.com.
Different from other real estate search sites, this one is based on neighborhood boundaries and integrated with Google Maps so you can search your preferred neighborhoods. You might be interested in just Hawthorne, Ladd’s Addition, and Laurelhurst, for example, but not all of inner SE Portland or a particular zipcode.
The search requires no registration, unless you’d like to save properties to a Favorites account or request a showing.
Here’s a screen shot of the site (click on the image to go to the site):
Here’s a peek at the neighborhood-level detail. Icons show the active home listings. Hovering over the icon shows a thumbnail and price. Clicking on it gives you more detail over in the sidebar.
The properties include all* RMLS listings ranging north of Salem to Vancouver. The Gorge is represented and some beach properties, too.
Be careful. Using it could be addicting.
* “All” means all listings approved by the listing broker for display on the Internet. Some brokers opt out of this.
Welcome 2009. Good riddance 2008.
The real estate market in the Portland area trailed off quietly into the new year, burdened by poor economic news and low pending sales from the past couple months, then ending with a 40-year-high snowfall that shut the city down in the week prior to Christmas. Not a strong ending.
Hope springs anew for 2009, but the Portland housing market will be looking further into the year for good news. December ended with a 36% decline year-over-year decline in home sales. While November sold a little over 1,000 homes, December could only muster results in the mid-900’s. The average units sold for this time of year has been easily twice that over the past six years.
The median price is down 8% and the average down 15% from the marks set 1 year ago. You should expect to see final accounts showing the median price around $254,000. At the peak of the market, the median topped $302,000.
January isn’t shaping up to be much better, due to slow December performance. Only a little over 600 homes went sale pending for the month. Two to three times that number is the December tradition. Complete results will be out around the 15th and some of these numbers could shift some.
Nevertheless, I’m looking forward to 2009 and will be making some changes and announcements at re:PDX this year. One will be more use of video, hopefully more scintillating than my 2009 foray below.
Please enable Javascript and Flash to view this Viddler video.Stay tuned.
