Case-Shiller Numbers Begin to Settle – Portland Ranks Mid-Pack

Those looking for a glimpse of blue sky amid the cloud layer covering the housing market may catch a peek today, based on April 2009 results of the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

The index shows that price declines were slowing in the 10 and 20-City composites. On average, major metro areas have seen 18% annual decreases in home values, but the month-over-month declines are slowing.

By comparison, Portland registered a record 16%, one-year decline in home values. The result is a little better than the overall average, and ranks 8th in the 20-city survey. April’s -0.6% decline over March was better than March/February’s -2.1% dip. Home prices in Portland are now comparable to those of May 2005. Nationally, prices are closer to mid-2003 vintage.

From David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s:

“While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here. The stock market bottomed in March and measures of consumer confidence have turned upward. This report shows that these better spirits are also appearing in the housing market”

Case-Shiller Home Price Index – April 2009

(Sorted by 1-year % change)


Metropolitan
Area
April 2009
Level
April/March
Change (%)
March/February
Change (%)
1-Year
Change (%)
Denver
122.17
1.50%
0.10%
-4.90%
Dallas
114.39
1.70%
0.10%
-5.00%
Boston
146.45
0.40%
-2.00%
-7.70%
Charlotte
118.69
-0.50%
0.30%
-10.00%
Cleveland
98.07
1.20%
-0.90%
-10.50%
New York
170.33
-1.70%
-2.60%
-12.50%
Atlanta
105.36
0.30%
-1.50%
-14.80%
Portland
146.85
-0.60%
-2.10%
-16.00%
Seattle
149.38
0.20%
-2.00%
-16.80%
Washington
167.30
0.80%
-1.30%
-16.90%
Chicago
122.30
0.00%
3.10%
-18.70%
San Diego
144.43
-0.10%
-1.50%
-20.00%
Los Angeles
159.37
-0.90%
-1.40%
-21.30%
Tampa
140.41
-0.70%
-2.70%
-21.30%
Minneapolis
108.63
-0.70%
-5.90%
-22.10%
Detroit
69.92
-1.50%
-4.90%
-25.40%
Miami
145.77
-2.00%
-3.60%
-27.30%
San Francisco
118.46
0.60%
-2.20%
-28.00%
Las Vegas
112.39
-3.50%
-3.80%
-32.20%
Phoenix
104.45
-2.20%
-4.50%
-35.30%
Composite-10
150.34
-0.70%
-2.10%
-18.00%
Composite-20
139.18
-0.60%
-2.20%
-18.10%

Full details can be found at www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.

June 30, 2009 · Filed Under Forecasts, Market Activity, National News

1 Comment 

Portland Oregon Real Estate Market Activity – May 2009

The Portland real estate market held steady through the month of May, posting modest month-over-month increases in closed and pending homes sales, while average and median sale prices remained flat compared to April. Year-to-date, the Portland metro area has sold 28% fewer homes than in the January – May 2008 period. Median and sale prices for May are down 13% from one year ago.

Interestingly, available home inventory remained virtually flat for the month. With the slight uptick in closed sales and fewer new listings than the seasonal norm, the housing inventory of 14,493 active listings would take 10.2 months to sell at current sales pace–the lowest mark since August of 2008.

So, is this nominal performance GOOD news? I suppose it should be viewed as positive. My buyer list is busy, and many agents I talk to say the same. Low rates, first-time buyer incentives, and a perception that prices are getting near the bottom are certainly having an effect.

On the other hand, I am worried about Oregon’s 12%+ unemployment and the downstream effects. Also, the activity induced by the first-time buyer tax credit activity will begin to recede in the next few months unless the timeframe is extended by the government. I mentioned earlier, that some market areas have up to 25% of their inventory in some form of short sale or repossessed foreclosure, so there are many homes that need to be absorbed, but are hard to buy right now.

I think this plateau of activity will continue through the summer and then we’ll see the seasonal activity dip again toward the end of the year which will put some downward pressure on prices.

Here is May 2009′s market activity summary:

Market Summary

May 2009
Prev. Month
April 2009
Last Year
May 2008
Median Sale Price $250,000 $249,900 $287,500
Average Sale Price $291,400 $291,100 $335,000
Closed Sales 1,427 1,302 1,863
Pending Sales 1,967 1,860 2,124
New Listings 3,879 3,808 5,182
Active Listings 14,493 14,328 17,066
Total Market Time * 147 days 148 days n/a
Inventory (in months) 10.2 11.0 9.2

Here is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.

Market Report by Area

Area YTD Avg. Sale Price YTD Median Sale Price 12-Mo. Appreciation Total Mkt Time*
Lake Oswego / West Linn $464,400 $390,000 -10.2% 150
West Portland & Downtown $438,900 $357,000 -2.2% 165
NW Washington County $375,200 $350,000 -5.9% 190
Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville $318,200 $298,300 -7.8% 161
Northeast Portland $294,600 $258,000 -4.3% 96
Milwaukie / Clackamas $293,300 $265,000 -7.5% 175
Oregon City / Canby $286,400 $246,000 -11.7% 155
Hillsboro / Forest Grove $250,300 $229,500 -9.2% 168
Beaverton / Aloha $249,200 $230,000 -7.6% 133
Southeast Portland $241,800 $215,000 -7.7% 110
Yamhill County $235,800 $215,000 -10.4% 196
North Portland $232,700 $230,000 -6.4% 120
Gresham / Troutdale $228,700 $215,000 -11.3% 154
Columbia County $185,600 $178,900 -12.5% 175

Data courtesy of RMLS, June 2009.

June 17, 2009 · Filed Under Market Activity

1 Comment 

Friday Night Lites

Just a few news items to wrap up this week in Portland real estate:

Portland real estate prices stay level, sales on modest climb for May

RMLS official tabulations for May 2009 will come out next week, but my early review shows that closed sales continue a small month-over-month increase (a seasonal effect), and median and average sale prices were essentially flat from the previous month. Closed sales will show to be up 10% over April, but down by ~30% from one year ago. Both median and average sale prices are around 13% off levels from a year ago. Come back early next week for a full report.

Oregon foreclosures nearly double in a year

A recent tabulation of foreclosure activity in Oregon shows a nearly 90% increase compared to May 2008. One out of every 525 Oregon homes received a foreclosure filing in May–the nation’s 12th highest rate.

Oregon to get a head start on recovery?

Really? Why? From research by Moody’s:

High-tech industry is one element. A slowdown in technology spending in 2008 and 2009 has created a pent-up demand for technology — businesses that know they need to upgrade and are waiting for the ability to spend.

“States that have a high concentration in tech-related industries are well positioned to take advantage of this trend, which is particularly true of Colorado, Idaho, Oregon and Washington and to a lesser extent Texas,” said economist Andrew Gledhill of Moody’s Economy.com.

I certainly hope the prediction is true, but I suspect digging out of a 12% unemployment hole will take longer than expected. (And wasn’t Moody’s one of those rating companies that suggested those mortgage-backed securities were AAA rated?)

Bike community letting it all hang out

Last, but not least, the Portland bike community celebrates it’s version of the World Naked Bike Ride on June 13 with a series of events. If you’re in the vicinity of NE 39th and Glisan around 2PM, you’re bound to get an eyeful during the Sunny Nekkid Ride (fair warning!). The big event is at midnight, and last year, 2,000 riders participated.

Photo by jd.inaz. Used under Creative Commons license.

June 12, 2009 · Filed Under Communities, Diversions, Forecasts, Lifestyle, Market Activity, Mortgages, National News

1 Comment 

HUD Clarifies $8,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Plan, Sort Of

After a bit of a false start a couple weeks ago, the Department of Housing and Urban Development has figured out how to monetize the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit for FHA-insured loans and allow its use in advance of filing a tax return.

Unfortunately, there’s still some minutiae to navigate.

From the HUD press release:

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 offers homebuyers a tax credit of up to $8,000 for purchasing their first home. Families can only access this credit after filing their tax returns with the IRS. Today’s announcement details FHA’s rules allowing state Housing Finance Agencies and certain non-profits to “monetize” up to the full amount of the tax credit (depending on the amount of the mortgage) so that borrowers can immediately apply the funds toward their down payments. Home buyers using FHA-approved lenders can apply the tax credit to their down payment in excess of 3.5 percent of appraised value or their closing costs, which can help achieve a lower interest rate.

Currently, borrowers applying for an FHA-insured mortgage are required to make a minimum 3.5 percent downpayment on the purchase of their home. Current law does not permit approved lenders to monetize the tax credit to meet the required 3.5 percent minimum down payment, but, under the terms of today’s announcement, lenders can now monetize the tax credit for use as additional down payment, or for other closing costs, which can help achieve a lower interest rate. Buyers financing through state Housing Finance Agencies and certain non-profits will be able to use the tax credit for their downpayments via secondary financing provided by the HFA or non-profit. In addition to the borrower’s own cash investment, FHA allows parents, employers and other governmental entities to contribute towards the downpayment. Today’s action permits the first-time homebuyer’s anticipated tax credit under the Recovery Act to be applied toward the family’s home purchase right away. Unlike seller-funded down-payment assistance, which was a vehicle for abuse, this program will allow homebuyers to shop for the best home price and services using their anticipated tax credit. [Emphases mine.]

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates the Administration’s homebuyer tax credit will stimulate 160,000 home sales across the nation – over 60% of which will be first-time buyers who will receive the credit. The NAHB figures another nearly 60,000 existing homeowners will be able to buy another home because a first-time buyer purchased their home using this strategy.

Washington State loan originator Rhonda Porter hits the highlights on her mortgage blog. Jeff Belonger, at The FHA Expert, touches on the fine points of how the credit can can be applied.

Photo by Aaron Hockley, used under Creative Commons license. (No correlation to the article. I just like it.)

June 4, 2009 · Filed Under Mortgages, National News

Comment