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re:PDX is written by Ron Ares, broker and market analyst affiliated with M Realty LLC in Portland, Oregon.
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Portland Oregon Real Estate Market Activity – May 2009
The Portland real estate market held steady through the month of May, posting modest month-over-month increases in closed and pending homes sales, while average and median sale prices remained flat compared to April. Year-to-date, the Portland metro area has sold 28% fewer homes than in the January – May 2008 period. Median and sale prices for May are down 13% from one year ago.
Interestingly, available home inventory remained virtually flat for the month. With the slight uptick in closed sales and fewer new listings than the seasonal norm, the housing inventory of 14,493 active listings would take 10.2 months to sell at current sales pace–the lowest mark since August of 2008.
So, is this nominal performance GOOD news? I suppose it should be viewed as positive. My buyer list is busy, and many agents I talk to say the same. Low rates, first-time buyer incentives, and a perception that prices are getting near the bottom are certainly having an effect.
On the other hand, I am worried about Oregon’s 12%+ unemployment and the downstream effects. Also, the activity induced by the first-time buyer tax credit activity will begin to recede in the next few months unless the timeframe is extended by the government. I mentioned earlier, that some market areas have up to 25% of their inventory in some form of short sale or repossessed foreclosure, so there are many homes that need to be absorbed, but are hard to buy right now.
I think this plateau of activity will continue through the summer and then we’ll see the seasonal activity dip again toward the end of the year which will put some downward pressure on prices.
Here is May 2009′s market activity summary:
Market Summary
|
May 2009
|
Prev. Month
April 2009 |
Last Year
May 2008 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $250,000 | $249,900 | $287,500 |
| Average Sale Price | $291,400 | $291,100 | $335,000 |
| Closed Sales | 1,427 | 1,302 | 1,863 |
| Pending Sales | 1,967 | 1,860 | 2,124 |
| New Listings | 3,879 | 3,808 | 5,182 |
| Active Listings | 14,493 | 14,328 | 17,066 |
| Total Market Time * | 147 days | 148 days | n/a |
| Inventory (in months) | 10.2 | 11.0 | 9.2 |
Here is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $464,400 | $390,000 | -10.2% | 150 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $438,900 | $357,000 | -2.2% | 165 |
| NW Washington County | $375,200 | $350,000 | -5.9% | 190 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $318,200 | $298,300 | -7.8% | 161 |
| Northeast Portland | $294,600 | $258,000 | -4.3% | 96 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $293,300 | $265,000 | -7.5% | 175 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $286,400 | $246,000 | -11.7% | 155 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $250,300 | $229,500 | -9.2% | 168 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $249,200 | $230,000 | -7.6% | 133 |
| Southeast Portland | $241,800 | $215,000 | -7.7% | 110 |
| Yamhill County | $235,800 | $215,000 | -10.4% | 196 |
| North Portland | $232,700 | $230,000 | -6.4% | 120 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $228,700 | $215,000 | -11.3% | 154 |
| Columbia County | $185,600 | $178,900 | -12.5% | 175 |
Data courtesy of RMLS, June 2009.
Comments
One Response to “Portland Oregon Real Estate Market Activity – May 2009”
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Good analysis. Several factors that should be kept in mind: The trends that are crating the current bottom are the lowest priced on the market and reflected mainly by bottom-feeding investors with cash and entry-level buyers fighting over the same properties. Multiple offers has created an overbidding scenario that is stopping the downward trend.
This action has been keeping the inventory somewhat stable. But also, those who do not HAVE to sell in this market aren’t. As well as those who cannot afford to sell at the current valuations. So that artificially is keeping the number a bit low as well.
There are still over 2,500 foreclosures in Portland. Ultimately it is the employment issue that will spur the recovery. For now, we just have to let the current market dynamic play out in its various ways.