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re:PDX is written by Ron Ares, broker and market analyst affiliated with M Realty LLC in Portland, Oregon.
Phone: 503-460-7992
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National Index Improves, Portland Follows Trend
July’s Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index shows continued month-over-month improvement across most index cities. Of the 20-city index, only Seattle and Las Vegas showed monthly declines.
In Portland’s case, the home price index improved 1.1% over June’s number, which was up 1.0% over May’s result. This is consistent with the multiple listing service reports that show prices basically flat through most of 2009. The index pegs Portland’s July 2008 to July 2009 comparison at -13.9%.
Below is a chart of Portland, Seattle and the overall index. The green trace is San Diego, which some readers use as Portland’s bellwether city for forecasting purposes.
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – August 2009
Home buyers slowed their pace down when compared to July 2009, but home sales and prices maintained a stable level in August nevertheless.
For the ninth straight month, the median sale price of homes throughout the metro area was around $250,000. This has effectively held the market depreciation to -17% from the peak market of August 2007. Whether prices will begin to slide due to the upcoming seasonal slowdown and the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit remains to be seen.
One possible contributing factor to stable pricing may be the comparatively low new listing volume in the available properties throughout 2009. It has contributed to a flat inventory average (~14,300 homes) from month-to-month–only a 420-listing difference between the low and high marks. Perhaps if inventories were in the 16,000 – 18,000 average active listings per month range like much of 2008, downward pricing pressure might have resulted.
With sales slowing slightly in August, the available inventory ratio increased slightly, and there is nearly 8 months’ supply on the market. It is taking over 19 weeks on average to put a home under contract (135 days).
Market Summary
|
August 2009
|
Prev. Month July 2009
|
Last Year August 2008
|
|
| Median Sale Price | $249,900 | $250,000 | $280,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $296,300 | $288,600 | $331,300 |
| Closed Sales | 1,841 | 1,988 | 1,770 |
| Pending Sales | 2,156 | 2,170 | 1,908 |
| New Listings | 3,780 | 3,907 | 4,398 |
| Active Listings | 14,295 | 14,503 | 17,556 |
| Total Market Time * | 135 days | 143 days | n/a |
| Inventory (in months) | 7.8 | 7.3 | 9.9 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $486,800 | $390,000 | -15.0% | 164 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $426,400 | $353,000 | -10.9% | 179 |
| NW Washington County | $376,600 | $350,000 | -5.1% | 114 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $325,100 | $294,900 | -8.5% | 196 |
| Northeast Portland | $290,800 | $255,000 | -8.5% | 76 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $287,600 | $264,000 | -10.3% | 146 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $285,600 | $249,900 | -12.3% | 141 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $251,100 | $230,800 | -12.7% | 133 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $244,700 | $227,500 | -9.7% | 122 |
| Southeast Portland | $244,600 | $219,000 | -8.8% | 113 |
| North Portland | $235,700 | $230,000 | -10.4% | 90 |
| Yamhill County | $233,300 | $210,000 | -16.5% | 175 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $224,000 | $213,700 | -14.4% | 152 |
| Columbia County | $198,200 | $189,000 | -11.1% | 217 |
Data courtesy of RMLS Market Action Report, August 2009.
Update: Atwater Auction in Portland’s South Waterfront
Update September 22, 2009: I didn’t attend the auction because my client decided not to bid. But Ryan Frank from The Oregonian did a bang-up job of following the action, even though he got thrown out of the bidding room. Be sure to read his write-up. Bottom line, the new average per square foot in the South Waterfront has effectively been reset to $300/sq. ft.
My small post about the auction scheduled for September 21 for the South Waterfront’s Atwater condo project attracted a fair amount of traffic, so I thought I would update it. I visited the property a few weeks ago for some first-hand assessment. Buyer traffic through the units was brisk. I don’t know if that translates to big participation at the auction or not.
Forty units of various size are slated for the auction. If all 40 were to sell, then the building would basically only be 1/2 sold out. Perhaps the marketing company will put together another auction if this auction is successful.
So, a little Q and A:
How does someone participate in the auction?
You must register and get pre-qualified to participate in Sunday’s auction by 7 pm on Friday, September 18. You can visit the condos between 11 am and 7 pm each day through Friday. If you want your own agent representative to guide you through the process, they must accompany you at the first visit to the property and register themselves.
What are the general contract terms?
The sales contract does not offer much in the way of protections for buyers. You cannot use a property inspection as a contingency for purchase. You cannot use a typical financing contingency. In other words, you will likely lose your earnest money deposit if you fail to close the transaction.
All the purchase paperwork and disclosures are available in advance from the marketing company (registration required), so you won’t be surprised at the signing table. You must close your purchase on or before October 19, 2009. They are offering a $2,500 incentive to close the transaction before October 5.
What is the auction format?
It is a live auction. Open bid amounts start at about 1/2 of the original list price, with increments controlled by the auctioneer. There is no published, pre-determined order to how the units that will be auctioned. You should likely have a back-up unit in mind in case your first choice is gone. If you like to see how the auction will be operated, you can go to a ‘mock auction’ at 6 pm on Saturday at the Marriott.
You must bring a cash equivalent (check or money order) for $2,500 to the auction. If you have a winning bid, you will immediately go to a separate room to sign an official contract and deposit 3% of the sale price with Ticor Title as earnest money.
How much are the HOA fees?
The homeowner association fees are equivalent to $0.303 per square foot, or $484.49 per month on a 1,594 sq. ft. 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom unit for example. The HOA fees cover water, sewer, and garbage for utilities, plus management, maintenance of all common areas, insurance, etc.
Is financing available?
If you need a mortgage, you must be pre-qualified through the Atwater’s two preferred lenders, Bank of America or MetLife. These lenders are offering $1,500 credit toward your closing costs. You’ll have 5 days to complete the loan application process after your winning bid. You can arrange your own financing, but I doubt outside conventional lenders will loan on this project. If you’re paying cash you must show proof of funds.
What about the property?
The units are very nice, comparable to the Meriwether and much of what is in the Pearl District–appointed with granite counters, nice appliances, etc. The high-end units (what I saw anyway) were fine, but I felt the Meriwether had better views (at least in the East building). There’s very little in the way common area space (i.e. no workout room), but there is a mid-sized community room in the foyer. Some extra storage in the basement may also be available for an extra fee.
What is the parking situation?
Each unit has a deeded, secure parking spot. Two bedroom units get 2 spots.
KOIN recently did a piece on the auction:
Photo courtesy of Excell Marketing Group.
Metro Unveils High-Density Growth Plan
Metro’s vision of how the Portland area will accommodate a million more people during the next 20 years emerged Tuesday: Pack them in.
How? Through redevelopment of old buildings and once-polluted industrial sites. By infill and increased density within existing city centers. By building up, not out. With a tight hold on the urban growth boundary and less reliance on cars. With smarter spending on the pipes, streets, wires and other public facilities that make life go.
That’s the viewpoint of the Metro’s chief operating officer, according to this article in the Oregonian.
Portland is famous nationally for it’s stand on limiting sprawl through the use of an Urban Growth Boundary. Metro reports that although 20,000 acres have been added to the UGB in recent years, that 95% of housing has been built inside the original UGB defined in 1979.
If the region makes wise land-use, infrastructure and transportation choices, the current UGB holds enough land to handle nearly all of the population and job growth projected by 2030, according to Metro’s projections, he concluded.
Not everyone agrees. What do you think?
Portland Sucks, But Someone’s Got To Live Here
Just kidding. Here’s a quick tour of Portland, at its finest:
Planning an exploratory visit to Portland? Then check out TravelPortland.com for events and things to do, places to see, etc.
Note: I am totally ripping this post off local author, Donald Miller, but his blog put me onto this video.
Early Look at August Statistics – Sales Down, Median Flat
An early sampling of RMLS statistics for August 2009 will show the median sale price for a home in Portland remained flat for the 4th consecutive month at ~$249,000. While the median price has been stable throughout the year, the average sale price has bounced around some and will come in around $296,000 for August.
Total unit sales were down 12% from July’s high water mark for 2009, but were pretty even with with August 2008.
The RMLS official reporting is usually out around the 15th, so come back for a breakdown by market area and some comparisons to prior periods.
A Call For Papers (aka Help Wanted)
A recent vacation gave me an opportunity to reflect on where my time has been going lately.
I’ve had a busy year so far. I changed brokerages (more on that later). I’ve shown over 500 homes to dozens of clients. I’ve written successful (and unsuccessful) offers and soldiered through about a dozen transactions, each with their own challenges.
All the while the re:PDX blog has taken something of a back seat to other activities, and I think that needs to change. So, here’s my pitch:
I want to expand the coverage and commentary found here, specifically as it relates to the home-buying and selling consumer in the Portland area. Do you have experience or opinions about real estate, livability, neighborhoods, mortgages, or construction? Would you share your experience as a home buyer or seller in this market?
Here are some voices I think could be interesting:
- Home inspectors
- Contractors
- Title and escrow officers
- Mortgage bankers and brokers
- Appraisers
- Real estate investors
- Property managers or multifamily property owners
- Housing ‘bubble’ critic
- Local economists
- New resident of PDX or moving to PDX
- A first-time home buyer
- Local multiple listing service professional
- Photographer of local PDX sights and scenes
- What else?
For what it’s worth, re:PDX receives over 4,000 unique visitors and 6,000+ pageviews per month. Not earth shattering, but I suspect it may be the highest-trafficked Portland real estate blog (according to Alexa).
So, if you’ve had an interest in writing in a public forum, would like an occasional soapbox, or want to dip a toe in the blogging pond, let me know. Or forward this post to someone you believe would be a good fit.
Sorry, the pay’s not great 
, but contributors get full attribution and headshot, plus link love to your website or blog.
Feel free to leave a comment at the end of this post, email me directly at ron(at)ronares.com or call me at (503) 460-7992 if you want to speak in private.
