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Update on First-Time Buyer Credit: Will It Stay or Will It Go?
Diana Olick at CNBC covered HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan’s address before the Senate Banking Committee October 20. Sounds like HUD isn’t so sure that the credit will continue:
I am also aware of the strong support in Congress for doing more to support the housing market, including extending the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit beyond 2009. At the same time, I am mindful that these proposals can be very expensive, especially at a time of significant budget deficits. I can assure you the Administration will work with Congress to fashion appropriate and effective home buyer incentives, mindful of both their benefits to stimulating new demand and their costs to the American taxpayer.
Politicians on both sides are taking a hard look at the expense of the stimulus vs. the potential effects of stalling the momentum the market has made through the year. Sounds like a decision is still weeks away.
Full commentary at http://www.cnbc.com//id/33398833.
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – September 2009
A couple interesting dynamics present themselves when looking at the September 2009 results in the Portland real estate market.
First, the median home price dipped 3.4% to $241,400, perhaps showing the emphasis of first-time home buyer activity at the entry-level prices. The median sale price had been pegged at ~$250,000 for most of the year. At the current level, Portland metro home prices are off 20% from the peak of the market in 2007.
Also, September 2009 saw the highest number of homes to go sales pending status since August 2007. The result was 34% over September 2008’s level and will elevate actual closed sale numbers over the next couple months over the norm. Actual closed sales had been tailing off slowly since July, which is a normal seasonal trend.
Market Summary
|
September 2009
|
August 2009
|
Last Year September 2008
|
|
| Median Sale Price | $241,400 | $249,900 | $267,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $290,100 | $296,300 | $315,300 |
| Closed Sales | 1,800 | 1,841 | 1,640 |
| Pending Sales | 2,286 | 2,156 | 1,705 |
| New Listings | 3,599 | 3,780 | 4,200 |
| Active Listings | 13,667 | 14,295 | 17,006 |
| Total Market Time * | 131 days | 135 days | 129 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 7.6 | 7.8 | 10.4 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $495,800 | $396,500 | -13.3% | 204 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $430,700 | $354,500 | -11.3% | 152 |
| NW Washington County | $373,300 | $350,000 | -6.1% | 184 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $320,200 | $289,900 | -10.0% | 156 |
| Northeast Portland | $288,700 | $255,000 | -10.1% | 84 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $288,000 | $260,000 | -9.8% | 139 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $284,500 | $250,000 | -11.3% | 153 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $248,100 | $229,000 | -13.2% | 115 |
| Southeast Portland | $244,700 | $218,000 | -10.6% | 104 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $241,800 | $225,000 | -9.7% | 110 |
| North Portland | $236,900 | $230,000 | -11.0% | 89 |
| Yamhill County | $233,000 | $210,000 | -15.3% | 146 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $221,800 | $210,000 | -14.3% | 129 |
| Columbia County | $195,800 | $187,000 | -9.9% | 200 |
Data courtesy of RMLS Market Action Report, September 2009.
Cool Portland Neighborhood Poster Art
Need a gift idea? Joel Burslem, over at Future of Real Estate Marketing, highlights these cool neighborhood-name art posters available at Ork Posters.
Priced between $22 to $27, available in 4 colors. They’ve mapped several other cities, like Seattle, San Francisco, Boston, NYC, LA, and Chicago.
Image courtesy of Ork Posters.
Making Sense of Recent Housing Statistics – It’s All About Timing
In this weekend’s New York Times, Robert Shiller, author of the Standard & Poor’s Case Shiller home price index, believes the recent housing rebound is more of a bounce than a boom.
His conclusion:
Given the abnormality of the economic environment, the sudden turn in the housing market probably reflects a new home-buyer emphasis on market timing. For years, people have been bulls for the long term. The change has been in their short-term thinking. The latest answers suggest that people think the price slide is over, so there is no longer such a good reason to wait to buy. And so they cause an upward blip in prices.
At the moment, it appears that the extreme ups and downs of the housing market have turned many Americans into housing speculators. Many people are still playing a leverage game, watching various economic indicators as well as the state of federal bailout programs — including the $8,000 first-time home-buyer tax credit that is currently scheduled to expire before Dec. 1 — in an effort to time their home-buying decisions. The sudden turn could signal a new housing boom, but is more likely just a sign of a period of higher short-run price volatility.
Portland Home Sale Prices to Show September Dip
My early review of September’s sales results* for the Portland metro real estate market reveals a marked dip in the median sale price when compared to the previous several months.
September will register a ~$242,500 median price result–about 3% lower than the ~$250,000 level that’s been the norm throughout most of 2009. The average home price was ~$291,800–off 1.5% from August.
The sale price decline may be attributed to the emphasis on purchases of entry-level homes fueled by the $8,000 tax credit.
The pace of sales is slowing. About 1,755 homes closed escrow in the month, down nearly 5% from August.
* Official RMLS-compiled results will appear around the 15th of the month.
It’s That Time Of Year Again
True Portlanders get chills at the sound of this:
