-
Your Host
Brought to you by Ron Ares, an Oregon broker licensed with MRealty.
Contact: (503) 460-7992
Follow Along
Subscribe in a reader
November Portland Weather — Part Deux
Umm, if you saw my video post a couple days ago, and drew a certain conclusion, you might want to see today’s vid:
September Case-Shiller Show National Prices Recovering, But Portland Remains Flat
From today’s Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller report:
Data through September 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index improved in the third quarter of 2009, posting its second consecutive quarterly increase and further improvement in its annual rate of return.
Portland registers 14th out of 20 cities monitored by the Case-Shiller index for 1-year home price performance. A half-point dip in September vs. August home prices puts the Portland metro area at a 12% decline in home prices over the past 12 months. The 20-city index registered an average 8.9% drop.
More from the report:
As of the 3rd quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in autumn 2003. The 3rd quarter values show improvement over the previous two quarters of 2009 and have risen well off their recent bottom. The 10-City and 20-City Composites continue to show monthly improvement in their annual return figures. Both composites emerged from double-digit annual declines with September’s report, the first time in 21 months. In addition, 19 of the 20 metro areas saw improvement in their annual returns compared to the previous month, Cleveland being the only exception.
Here are the September Case-Shiller numbers, with metropolitan areas sorted by 1-year change.
| Metropolitan Area | Sept-09 Level |
Sept./August Change (%) |
August/July Change (%) |
1-Year Change (%) |
| Denver | 129.45 | -0.50% | 1.00% | -1.20% |
| Dallas | 120.57 | -0.70% | 0.20% | -1.20% |
| Boston | 155.62 | -0.20% | 0.90% | -3.30% |
| Cleveland | 105.75 | -1.60% | -0.50% | -3.70% |
| Washington | 180.45 | 0.50% | 1.80% | -5.00% |
| San Diego | 154.76 | 0.90% | 1.60% | -5.70% |
| San Francisco | 134.16 | 1.30% | 2.80% | -7.80% |
| Charlotte | 119.84 | -0.70% | -0.40% | -8.10% |
| New York | 174.38 | -0.30% | 0.60% | -9.00% |
| Los Angeles | 167.93 | 0.80% | 1.60% | -9.00% |
| Atlanta | 111.26 | 0.00% | 1.10% | -9.30% |
| Chicago | 132.13 | 1.20% | 1.70% | -10.60% |
| Minneapolis | 124.96 | 1.80% | 3.10% | -11.20% |
| Portland | 149.72 | -0.50% | 0.30% | -11.80% |
| Seattle | 148.94 | -0.40% | 0.10% | -13.80% |
| Miami | 149.69 | 0.50% | 1.10% | -16.20% |
| Tampa | 142.57 | -0.60% | 0.40% | -16.70% |
| Detroit | 72.9 | 1.80% | 1.90% | -19.20% |
| Phoenix | 109.26 | 0.80% | 1.60% | -21.80% |
| Las Vegas | 104.82 | -0.90% | -0.30% | -28.60% |
| Composite-20 | 146.51 | 0.30% | 1.20% | -9.40% |
Vegas, Phoenix and Detroit continue to drag behind the rest of the country with -28%, -22%, and -19% year-over-year declines. Denver and Dallas home values have held up quite well in the past 12 months.
Portland’s Weather – November’s Grey Veil Descends
For all the gloating about Portland weather and scenery from June through September, there is a flip side:
For a little more on how Portland compares to other U.S. cities for precipitation, read here.
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – October 2009
Low interest rates and homebuyer tax credits apparently fueled a late summer / early fall increase in home sales, according to the latest statistics from the Portland Realtor® association.
Over 2,000 homes sold in October — the most since August of 2007, the height of Portland’s real estate market in term of housing pricing and activity. The sold home total was on par with the best months of Portland’s peak housing season — May through August.
Pending sales, or homes that received an acceptable offer and opened escrow, logged in at 2,079 for the month, up 64% over October 2008. That indicates that November’s unit sales result will likely be higher than normal, too.
At the same time, the number of new listings is shrinking, which has resulted in a 6.5-month supply of housing inventory, the highest absorption rate since August 2007. Available inventory stands at a little over 13,000 homes — the lowest inventory in two years.
The average sale price slipped to $283,000 from September’s results, but the median sale price grew 1.5% over last month. Both average and median are still down 19 to 20% from peak pricing of 2007, and 10 to 12% from a year ago.
Here are the numbers:
Market Summary
| October 2009 |
September 2009 |
Last Year October 2008 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $245,000 | $241,400 | $275,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $283,500 | $290,100 | $324,300 |
| Closed Sales | 2,009 | 1,800 | 1,465 |
| Pending Sales | 2,079 | 2,286 | 1,268 |
| New Listings | 3,443 | 3,599 | 3,605 |
| Active Listings | 13,101 | 13,667 | 16,257 |
| Total Market Time * | 135 days | 131 days | 127 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 6.5 | 7.6 | 11.1 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Appreciation |
Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $488,300 | $395,000 | -14.50% | 201 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $427,000 | $352,600 | -12.00% | 146 |
| NW Washington County | $372,200 | $350,000 | -7.60% | 122 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $317,800 | $287,900 | -11.20% | 141 |
| Northeast Portland | $289,200 | $255,000 | -10.70% | 97 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $286,800 | $260,000 | -10.60% | 143 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $282,100 | $249,500 | -10.70% | 180 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $247,100 | $228,000 | -13.00% | 153 |
| Southeast Portland | $243,400 | $216,000 | -11.60% | 105 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $241,400 | $225,000 | -11.00% | 126 |
| North Portland | $235,400 | $230,000 | -12.00% | 84 |
| Yamhill County | $231,000 | $210,000 | -13.80% | 190 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $221,900 | $210,000 | -15.60% | 168 |
| Columbia County | $196,800 | $186,500 | -11.60% | 126 |
Homebuyer Tax Credit Lives On, and Expands
It appears we can take off the “First Time” prefix and and just call it the “Homebuyers Tax Credit.” The government’s housing stimulus plan continues past its original November 30 deadline and actually grows in scope.
The Senate and House have approved a bill extending the $8,000 tax credit and offering move-up buyers a similar $6,500 benefit. President Obama is expected to sign this quickly, since the bill contains unemployment benefit provisions as well.
Here’s the latest:
- The tax credit would be $8,000 for first-time home buyers and $6,500 for move-up buyers (from December 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010).
- Move-up buyers will be eligible, as long as they have lived in their principal residence at least 5 years.
- Contracts through April 30, 2010 will qualify, but closing must occur within 60 days.
- The income limits have been raised–$125,000 for single return and $225,000 joint return for both first-time and move-up buyers.
- Cost of the home may not exceed $800,000 to be eligible.
- Taxpayers will be able to claim the credit on their 2009 income tax return for purchases made in 2010.
- Home buyers would not have to repay the credit, as long as the home remains their principal residence for 36 months after the purchase date.
More people will qualify for the plan (high income earners and current homeowners). And the tax credit will sunset just as the peak real estate season is ramping up.
So the question remains, does this expansion move your housing timetable up? Sound off in the comments, please.
