2009: Reflections in the Rear-View Mirror

I’ll probably do a ‘looking ahead’ post soon, but 2009 was an interesting year (for me anyway) and I thought I’d share a look back.

I changed agencies right around the turn of the year. I didn’t really talk about it at the time or since, because I don’t think most consumers really care. But it was a good change for me and I will share more about why soon.

The start of 2009 really scared me. From November 2008 through January 2009, homebuyers just plain disappeared. With the economic turmoil at the time, I didn’t blame them, but I wondered if I was being prudent by staying in the industry (so did my family!). But around mid-January, my phone started ringing heavily, and soon I began to wonder if I would need an assistant or partner to help me.

Whereas 2008 was more of a ‘listings’ year for me, in 2009 it was all about buyers. I showed over 600 homes through the year. My auto miles increased by around 10,000 miles over 2008. Most buyers wanted to be close-in — near transit or bike commute routes. That meant I didn’t spend as much time in the suburbs this year.

As an agent I had my best year ever in terms of clients and transactions, but it was also the most expensive year I’ve had, too. I earned a number of referrals from other agents and partners, who all received a sizable portion of my compensation. I’m working a strategy to earn more business ‘organically’ and raise my bottom line to something more manageable.

I did not close even one short sale transaction. All of my offers expired after at least 8 weeks of waiting for an answer from the lender. My buyers did not want to wait. In one case, the prospective home had a rain gutter overflow along the foundation wall and seep into the brand-new basement, causing a 4-foot high mold bloom in the sheetrock. Even though the bank offered an additional $7,000 discount, my clients walked away.

Every bank-owned property (REO) that I wrote an offer for (many) had multiple offers, and the winning bids were usually cash transactions with minimal inspection contingencies and quick closing timeframes. My clients, with their FHA financing (usually) had no shot, even if our offer was slightly higher than the cash bid.

Tighter lending standards and underwriting reviews added considerable friction to the process. Every transaction I had where a mortgage was involved was delayed by no fewer than 3 days, sometimes a week or more. In a couple cases, I had clients in moving trucks with no home to put them in. Everyone survived, but it wasn’t fun. Let’s just say I enjoyed working with clients in all-cash positions!

Around mid-year, one of my clients volunteered to participate in HGTV’s “My First Place”. While it was mostly a fun experience being on camera, it added tens of hours to the process of actually viewing and buying a home. At times I just wanted to take my clients aside for some productive, un-filmed conversation and advising. They started out looking at single-family homes, but ended up with a cool, modern-style condo — which shook up the storyline for sure. I’m not sure when the show will air, but I will let you know.

Late in the year, I was appointed to the RMLS Board of Directors and will be heading up the Technology Committee for RMLS. Looking forward to both of those roles and working more closely with the staff there.

On the downside, I damaged a potential client’s car in October to the tune of $550. My associates have urged me to tell that story here, so expect a post about that sometime. Worst Realtor day, ev-ah!

Things look good going into 2010. I have activity and transactions in escrow, even an offer to be written on New Year’s Eve. My business is more balanced between advising buyers and sellers, which I prefer.

The market will probably be stable through the first half of the year, but rates are predicted to rise and government stimulus programs will expire. And we need jobs, but that’s fodder for a New Year’s post.

Thanks for indulging me today, and for reading re:PDX this year. I look forward to the New Year. How about you?

December 31, 2009 · Filed Under Forecasts, Market Activity

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Portland Real Estate Market Activity – November 2009

Home buyer tax credits and low interest rates continued to fuel home purchases in November 2009 throughout the Portland metro area.

Total home sales for the month were 72% higher than a year ago. However, average and median prices took a hit, declining 11% and 10% respectively from their levels a year ago.

The leading indicator for December performance, pending sales, is down 36% from the prior month — signaling a cooling off over the holiday month. The drop in activity may be due to buyers retreating because of the originally planned expiration of the $8,000 tax credit on November 30.

The average home sale price is down 23% and the median is off 21% from peak values set in the summer of 2007. The median sale price in the Portland metro area for November was $239,000 — the lowest level going back to June 2005.

Homes that do sell are taking a little over 4 months to close, on average. Low numbers of new listings are keeping inventories at 7 months’ available supply (12,697 homes).

Here are the numbers:

Market Summary

November
2009		 October
2009		 Last Year
November 2008
Median Sale Price $239,000 $245,000 $265,000
Average Sale Price $273,300 $283,500 $308,300
Closed Sales 1,795 2,009 1,041
Pending Sales 1,328 2,079 1,108
New Listings 2,449 3,443 2,687
Active Listings 12,697 13,101 15,611
Total Market Time * 131 days 135 days 135 days
Inventory (in months) 7.1 6.5 15.0

Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.

Market Report by Area

Area YTD Avg.
Sale Price		 YTD Median
Sale Price		 12-Mo.
Appreciation		 Total Mkt
Time*
Lake Oswego / West Linn $481,700 $391,500 -12.9% 168
West Portland & Downtown $422,700 $347,100 -12.6% 167
NW Washington County $370,800 $350,000 -8.2% 126
Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville $316,300 $285,000 -10.8% 156
Northeast Portland $286,600 $253,000 -10.6% 102
Milwaukie / Clackamas $286,000 $260,000 -11.0% 157
Oregon City / Canby $281,900 $248,900 -10.9% 153
Hillsboro / Forest Grove $244,200 $225,000 -13.4% 143
Southeast Portland $241,500 $215,000 -12.2% 106
Beaverton / Aloha $241,200 $224,000 -11.2% 103
North Portland $235,600 $230,000 -10.8% 80
Yamhill County $228,400 $207,700 -15.1% 138
Gresham / Troutdale $221,700 $210,000 -15.9% 140
Columbia County $196,000 $187,000 -12.7% 180

December 17, 2009 · Filed Under Market Activity

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