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Portland Metropolitan Area Median Home Prices, 2000 – 2009
I put together a graph showing Portland-area median sale prices by month from 2000 through 2009.
The smooth curves show annual growth rates between 3% and 6% (from bottom to top) if you had purchased the median-priced home in January 2000. From 2000 through early 2004, home prices rose consistently in the 3 to 4% range. Then you can see the bubble pricing taking effect, jumping the growth curves and peaking in the summer of 2007.
The mid part of 2009 showed a plateau of $250,000 for a few months in a row, but even with homebuyer tax rebates and low interest rates, prices have continued their descent. Prices are now roughly equivalent with those of early 2005.
Click for a larger image.
Again, this is just a broad look at median pricing for the metro area in general (Portland, its suburbs, plus Yamhill and Columbia counties). I suspect the closer-in neighborhoods would fare better than the outlying areas, but that’s just an educated guess.
The question remains. When federal stimulus and interest rate support programs expire, what will happen to the market?
NY Times Charts Case-Shiller Numbers for Portland and U.S.
According to the Case-Shiller report, home price declines are easing throughout most of the country, including Portland–down 5.4% from the previous year.
The New York Times releases another of their nifty interactive graphs to compare markets. Be sure to click on Portland in the list.
Portland Real Estate Market Activity — January 2010 Results
Just about every metric comparing January 2010 to January 2009 would appear to be positive news — higher sales volume & pending sales, fewer new listings, shorter marketing timelines…
Except median sale prices, which were down 4% from January 2009 and 3.7% from last month. Prices are now off 20% from the peak values registered the summer of 2007.
Even the good news is a little hollow if you think about it. If you recall, January 2009 was the weakest home sale month in RMLS recorded history: just 732 homes throughout the metropolitan area. Last month, 986 homes closed escrow, but it was only the third-worst sales result recorded.
If there is a bright spot, it’s that 1,535 homes went sale pending in January–transactions that will close in February and March. The homebuyer tax credit may create some additional interest over the next couple months, but it sure didn’t have an effect on January.
North Portland stands out as a market area where inventory is moving the quickest (56 days on market compared to the 145 days average throughout the Portland area). That’s perhaps due to affordability and relative proximity to downtown.
Market Summary
| January 2010 |
December 2009 |
Last Year January 2009 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $240,000 | $242,200 | $250,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $282,400 | $293,300 | $297,200 |
| Closed Sales | 986 | 1,506 | 732 |
| Pending Sales | 1,535 | 1,141 | 1,235 |
| New Listings | 3,937 | 2,104 | 4,196 |
| Active Listings | 12,449 | 11,597 | 14,076 |
| Total Market Time * | 145 days | 144 days | 152 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 12.6 | 7.7 | 19.2 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date (or in this case, just for January 2010), and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Appreciation |
Total Mkt Time* |
| West Portland & Downtown | $427,400 | $310,000 | -11.9% | 147 |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $414,900 | $355,000 | -9.5% | 215 |
| NW Washington County | $377,500 | $370,000 | -9.3% | 175 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $314,000 | $287,700 | -9.6% | 184 |
| Northeast Portland | $276,200 | $242,500 | -10.0% | 144 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $263,200 | $249,000 | -9.3% | 130 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $262,600 | $220,000 | -11.4% | 114 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $242,600 | $225,900 | -11.9% | 129 |
| North Portland | $241,300 | $212,500 | -10.9% | 56 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $237,500 | $215,800 | -12.3% | 132 |
| Southeast Portland | $228,500 | $192,500 | -11.8% | 140 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $211,800 | $199,000 | -14.0% | 120 |
| Yamhill County | $208,200 | $202,400 | -15.4% | 192 |
| Columbia County | $171,800 | $184,000 | -15.8% | 119 |
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – December 2009 Results
December 2009 certainly beat the tar out of December 2008 when it came to sales volume. Poor weather and economic uncertainty keep buyers out of the market a year ago, but 2009 closed with a reasonable amount of activity — 1,506 homes sold vs. 987 homes in December 2008.
The year ended with a 12-month average sale price of $289,900 and a median price of $247,000. These results were 12% and 11% lower than the 2008 12-month marks.
The Portland metro market closed a nearly identical number of properties (18,955) compared to 2008 (19,132), but due to declining sale prices, the sales volume was down to $5.5 billion vs. $6.3 billion in 2008.
Here are the numbers for December 2009:
Market Summary
| December 2009 |
November 2009 |
Last Year December 2008 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $242,200 | $239,000 | $252,900 |
| Average Sale Price | $293,300 | $273,300 | $300,800 |
| Closed Sales | 1,506 | 1,795 | 987 |
| Pending Sales | 1,141 | 1,328 | 810 |
| New Listings | 2,104 | 2,449 | 1,880 |
| Active Listings | 11,597 | 12,697 | 13,882 |
| Total Market Time * | 144 days | 131 days | 138 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 7.7 | 7.1 | 14.1 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Appreciation |
Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $486,300 | $395,000 | -9.8% | 235 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $420,500 | $347,600 | -12.0% | 175 |
| NW Washington County | $369,300 | $349,900 | -8.7% | 158 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $316,000 | $285,000 | -10.3% | 178 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $288,000 | $260,000 | -9.5% | 147 |
| Northeast Portland | $287,100 | $253,000 | -10.2% | 118 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $279,500 | $245,000 | -10.7% | 140 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $243,200 | $225,000 | -12.3% | 140 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $241,100 | $223,000 | -11.9% | 122 |
| Southeast Portland | $240,900 | $215,000 | -12.7% | 104 |
| North Portland | $236,000 | $230,000 | -11.3% | 101 |
| Yamhill County | $227,300 | $206,000 | -14.8% | 197 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $222,100 | $210,000 | -14.1% | 112 |
| Columbia County | $193,300 | $185,000 | -16.1% | 152 |
2009: Reflections in the Rear-View Mirror
I’ll probably do a ‘looking ahead’ post soon, but 2009 was an interesting year (for me anyway) and I thought I’d share a look back.
I changed agencies right around the turn of the year. I didn’t really talk about it at the time or since, because I don’t think most consumers really care. But it was a good change for me and I will share more about why soon.
The start of 2009 really scared me. From November 2008 through January 2009, homebuyers just plain disappeared. With the economic turmoil at the time, I didn’t blame them, but I wondered if I was being prudent by staying in the industry (so did my family!). But around mid-January, my phone started ringing heavily, and soon I began to wonder if I would need an assistant or partner to help me.
Whereas 2008 was more of a ‘listings’ year for me, in 2009 it was all about buyers. I showed over 600 homes through the year. My auto miles increased by around 10,000 miles over 2008. Most buyers wanted to be close-in — near transit or bike commute routes. That meant I didn’t spend as much time in the suburbs this year.
As an agent I had my best year ever in terms of clients and transactions, but it was also the most expensive year I’ve had, too. I earned a number of referrals from other agents and partners, who all received a sizable portion of my compensation. I’m working a strategy to earn more business ‘organically’ and raise my bottom line to something more manageable.
I did not close even one short sale transaction. All of my offers expired after at least 8 weeks of waiting for an answer from the lender. My buyers did not want to wait. In one case, the prospective home had a rain gutter overflow along the foundation wall and seep into the brand-new basement, causing a 4-foot high mold bloom in the sheetrock. Even though the bank offered an additional $7,000 discount, my clients walked away.
Every bank-owned property (REO) that I wrote an offer for (many) had multiple offers, and the winning bids were usually cash transactions with minimal inspection contingencies and quick closing timeframes. My clients, with their FHA financing (usually) had no shot, even if our offer was slightly higher than the cash bid.
Tighter lending standards and underwriting reviews added considerable friction to the process. Every transaction I had where a mortgage was involved was delayed by no fewer than 3 days, sometimes a week or more. In a couple cases, I had clients in moving trucks with no home to put them in. Everyone survived, but it wasn’t fun. Let’s just say I enjoyed working with clients in all-cash positions!
Around mid-year, one of my clients volunteered to participate in HGTV’s “My First Place”. While it was mostly a fun experience being on camera, it added tens of hours to the process of actually viewing and buying a home. At times I just wanted to take my clients aside for some productive, un-filmed conversation and advising. They started out looking at single-family homes, but ended up with a cool, modern-style condo — which shook up the storyline for sure. I’m not sure when the show will air, but I will let you know.
Late in the year, I was appointed to the RMLS Board of Directors and will be heading up the Technology Committee for RMLS. Looking forward to both of those roles and working more closely with the staff there.
On the downside, I damaged a potential client’s car in October to the tune of $550. My associates have urged me to tell that story here, so expect a post about that sometime. Worst Realtor day, ev-ah!
Things look good going into 2010. I have activity and transactions in escrow, even an offer to be written on New Year’s Eve. My business is more balanced between advising buyers and sellers, which I prefer.
The market will probably be stable through the first half of the year, but rates are predicted to rise and government stimulus programs will expire. And we need jobs, but that’s fodder for a New Year’s post.
Thanks for indulging me today, and for reading re:PDX this year. I look forward to the New Year. How about you?
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – November 2009
Home buyer tax credits and low interest rates continued to fuel home purchases in November 2009 throughout the Portland metro area.
Total home sales for the month were 72% higher than a year ago. However, average and median prices took a hit, declining 11% and 10% respectively from their levels a year ago.
The leading indicator for December performance, pending sales, is down 36% from the prior month — signaling a cooling off over the holiday month. The drop in activity may be due to buyers retreating because of the originally planned expiration of the $8,000 tax credit on November 30.
The average home sale price is down 23% and the median is off 21% from peak values set in the summer of 2007. The median sale price in the Portland metro area for November was $239,000 — the lowest level going back to June 2005.
Homes that do sell are taking a little over 4 months to close, on average. Low numbers of new listings are keeping inventories at 7 months’ available supply (12,697 homes).
Here are the numbers:
Market Summary
| November 2009 |
October 2009 |
Last Year November 2008 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $239,000 | $245,000 | $265,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $273,300 | $283,500 | $308,300 |
| Closed Sales | 1,795 | 2,009 | 1,041 |
| Pending Sales | 1,328 | 2,079 | 1,108 |
| New Listings | 2,449 | 3,443 | 2,687 |
| Active Listings | 12,697 | 13,101 | 15,611 |
| Total Market Time * | 131 days | 135 days | 135 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 7.1 | 6.5 | 15.0 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Appreciation |
Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $481,700 | $391,500 | -12.9% | 168 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $422,700 | $347,100 | -12.6% | 167 |
| NW Washington County | $370,800 | $350,000 | -8.2% | 126 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $316,300 | $285,000 | -10.8% | 156 |
| Northeast Portland | $286,600 | $253,000 | -10.6% | 102 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $286,000 | $260,000 | -11.0% | 157 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $281,900 | $248,900 | -10.9% | 153 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $244,200 | $225,000 | -13.4% | 143 |
| Southeast Portland | $241,500 | $215,000 | -12.2% | 106 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $241,200 | $224,000 | -11.2% | 103 |
| North Portland | $235,600 | $230,000 | -10.8% | 80 |
| Yamhill County | $228,400 | $207,700 | -15.1% | 138 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $221,700 | $210,000 | -15.9% | 140 |
| Columbia County | $196,000 | $187,000 | -12.7% | 180 |
September Case-Shiller Show National Prices Recovering, But Portland Remains Flat
From today’s Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller report:
Data through September 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index improved in the third quarter of 2009, posting its second consecutive quarterly increase and further improvement in its annual rate of return.
Portland registers 14th out of 20 cities monitored by the Case-Shiller index for 1-year home price performance. A half-point dip in September vs. August home prices puts the Portland metro area at a 12% decline in home prices over the past 12 months. The 20-city index registered an average 8.9% drop.
More from the report:
As of the 3rd quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in autumn 2003. The 3rd quarter values show improvement over the previous two quarters of 2009 and have risen well off their recent bottom. The 10-City and 20-City Composites continue to show monthly improvement in their annual return figures. Both composites emerged from double-digit annual declines with September’s report, the first time in 21 months. In addition, 19 of the 20 metro areas saw improvement in their annual returns compared to the previous month, Cleveland being the only exception.
Here are the September Case-Shiller numbers, with metropolitan areas sorted by 1-year change.
| Metropolitan Area | Sept-09 Level |
Sept./August Change (%) |
August/July Change (%) |
1-Year Change (%) |
| Denver | 129.45 | -0.50% | 1.00% | -1.20% |
| Dallas | 120.57 | -0.70% | 0.20% | -1.20% |
| Boston | 155.62 | -0.20% | 0.90% | -3.30% |
| Cleveland | 105.75 | -1.60% | -0.50% | -3.70% |
| Washington | 180.45 | 0.50% | 1.80% | -5.00% |
| San Diego | 154.76 | 0.90% | 1.60% | -5.70% |
| San Francisco | 134.16 | 1.30% | 2.80% | -7.80% |
| Charlotte | 119.84 | -0.70% | -0.40% | -8.10% |
| New York | 174.38 | -0.30% | 0.60% | -9.00% |
| Los Angeles | 167.93 | 0.80% | 1.60% | -9.00% |
| Atlanta | 111.26 | 0.00% | 1.10% | -9.30% |
| Chicago | 132.13 | 1.20% | 1.70% | -10.60% |
| Minneapolis | 124.96 | 1.80% | 3.10% | -11.20% |
| Portland | 149.72 | -0.50% | 0.30% | -11.80% |
| Seattle | 148.94 | -0.40% | 0.10% | -13.80% |
| Miami | 149.69 | 0.50% | 1.10% | -16.20% |
| Tampa | 142.57 | -0.60% | 0.40% | -16.70% |
| Detroit | 72.9 | 1.80% | 1.90% | -19.20% |
| Phoenix | 109.26 | 0.80% | 1.60% | -21.80% |
| Las Vegas | 104.82 | -0.90% | -0.30% | -28.60% |
| Composite-20 | 146.51 | 0.30% | 1.20% | -9.40% |
Vegas, Phoenix and Detroit continue to drag behind the rest of the country with -28%, -22%, and -19% year-over-year declines. Denver and Dallas home values have held up quite well in the past 12 months.
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – October 2009
Low interest rates and homebuyer tax credits apparently fueled a late summer / early fall increase in home sales, according to the latest statistics from the Portland Realtor® association.
Over 2,000 homes sold in October — the most since August of 2007, the height of Portland’s real estate market in term of housing pricing and activity. The sold home total was on par with the best months of Portland’s peak housing season — May through August.
Pending sales, or homes that received an acceptable offer and opened escrow, logged in at 2,079 for the month, up 64% over October 2008. That indicates that November’s unit sales result will likely be higher than normal, too.
At the same time, the number of new listings is shrinking, which has resulted in a 6.5-month supply of housing inventory, the highest absorption rate since August 2007. Available inventory stands at a little over 13,000 homes — the lowest inventory in two years.
The average sale price slipped to $283,000 from September’s results, but the median sale price grew 1.5% over last month. Both average and median are still down 19 to 20% from peak pricing of 2007, and 10 to 12% from a year ago.
Here are the numbers:
Market Summary
| October 2009 |
September 2009 |
Last Year October 2008 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $245,000 | $241,400 | $275,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $283,500 | $290,100 | $324,300 |
| Closed Sales | 2,009 | 1,800 | 1,465 |
| Pending Sales | 2,079 | 2,286 | 1,268 |
| New Listings | 3,443 | 3,599 | 3,605 |
| Active Listings | 13,101 | 13,667 | 16,257 |
| Total Market Time * | 135 days | 131 days | 127 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 6.5 | 7.6 | 11.1 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Appreciation |
Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $488,300 | $395,000 | -14.50% | 201 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $427,000 | $352,600 | -12.00% | 146 |
| NW Washington County | $372,200 | $350,000 | -7.60% | 122 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $317,800 | $287,900 | -11.20% | 141 |
| Northeast Portland | $289,200 | $255,000 | -10.70% | 97 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $286,800 | $260,000 | -10.60% | 143 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $282,100 | $249,500 | -10.70% | 180 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $247,100 | $228,000 | -13.00% | 153 |
| Southeast Portland | $243,400 | $216,000 | -11.60% | 105 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $241,400 | $225,000 | -11.00% | 126 |
| North Portland | $235,400 | $230,000 | -12.00% | 84 |
| Yamhill County | $231,000 | $210,000 | -13.80% | 190 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $221,900 | $210,000 | -15.60% | 168 |
| Columbia County | $196,800 | $186,500 | -11.60% | 126 |
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – September 2009
A couple interesting dynamics present themselves when looking at the September 2009 results in the Portland real estate market.
First, the median home price dipped 3.4% to $241,400, perhaps showing the emphasis of first-time home buyer activity at the entry-level prices. The median sale price had been pegged at ~$250,000 for most of the year. At the current level, Portland metro home prices are off 20% from the peak of the market in 2007.
Also, September 2009 saw the highest number of homes to go sales pending status since August 2007. The result was 34% over September 2008’s level and will elevate actual closed sale numbers over the next couple months over the norm. Actual closed sales had been tailing off slowly since July, which is a normal seasonal trend.
Market Summary
|
September 2009
|
August 2009
|
Last Year September 2008
|
|
| Median Sale Price | $241,400 | $249,900 | $267,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $290,100 | $296,300 | $315,300 |
| Closed Sales | 1,800 | 1,841 | 1,640 |
| Pending Sales | 2,286 | 2,156 | 1,705 |
| New Listings | 3,599 | 3,780 | 4,200 |
| Active Listings | 13,667 | 14,295 | 17,006 |
| Total Market Time * | 131 days | 135 days | 129 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 7.6 | 7.8 | 10.4 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $495,800 | $396,500 | -13.3% | 204 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $430,700 | $354,500 | -11.3% | 152 |
| NW Washington County | $373,300 | $350,000 | -6.1% | 184 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $320,200 | $289,900 | -10.0% | 156 |
| Northeast Portland | $288,700 | $255,000 | -10.1% | 84 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $288,000 | $260,000 | -9.8% | 139 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $284,500 | $250,000 | -11.3% | 153 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $248,100 | $229,000 | -13.2% | 115 |
| Southeast Portland | $244,700 | $218,000 | -10.6% | 104 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $241,800 | $225,000 | -9.7% | 110 |
| North Portland | $236,900 | $230,000 | -11.0% | 89 |
| Yamhill County | $233,000 | $210,000 | -15.3% | 146 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $221,800 | $210,000 | -14.3% | 129 |
| Columbia County | $195,800 | $187,000 | -9.9% | 200 |
Data courtesy of RMLS Market Action Report, September 2009.
Portland Home Sale Prices to Show September Dip
My early review of September’s sales results* for the Portland metro real estate market reveals a marked dip in the median sale price when compared to the previous several months.
September will register a ~$242,500 median price result–about 3% lower than the ~$250,000 level that’s been the norm throughout most of 2009. The average home price was ~$291,800–off 1.5% from August.
The sale price decline may be attributed to the emphasis on purchases of entry-level homes fueled by the $8,000 tax credit.
The pace of sales is slowing. About 1,755 homes closed escrow in the month, down nearly 5% from August.
* Official RMLS-compiled results will appear around the 15th of the month.
