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re:PDX is written by Ron Ares, broker and market analyst affiliated with M Realty LLC in Portland, Oregon.
Phone: 503-460-7992
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NPR Interview: Credit is Cheap But Extremely Tight
I caught a succinct, very clear explanation on NPR radio tonight about why credit is so cheap, but so difficult to qualify for when purchasing a home. Give it a listen:
In a related story, the national government is looking at changes to the loan modification process. Story here.
Distress Properties Comprise 30% of Portland Real Estate Sales
Portland’s multiple listing service RMLS has published a small study on the magnitude of distress sales in the metro area–distress sales meaning short sales or bank foreclosures. This measure is also something that I’ve started tracking in my monthly reviews of Portland real estate activity.
- Click for larger view.
In short, distress properties made up 24% of new residential listings and almost 30% of actual sales in 2010. While those numbers are small compared to the smoking crater markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix, or Detroit, distress sale pricing impedes the value of all non-distress homes and is a major contributor to the continued pricing slump in the area.
Additional facts from RMLS:
- Short Sales were 11.8% of new listings, and 8.9% of sales.
- Bank Owned properties were 12.3% of new listings, and 20.4% of sales.
While pursuing short sales can yield fruit, you have a much higher likelihood of closing on a bank-owned foreclosure property (aka REO, or real-estate owned). You can search for those opportunities on my Foreclosures search page.
NPR Highlights Portland’s In-Migration Puzzle
NPR shared an interesting story outlining the dichotomy of why people are continuing to migrate to Portland despite a lack of employment opportunities and racial diversity.
In short, it noted the typical stereotypical responses — outdoor life, food, music, beer, biking — you know, lifestyle stuff.
For jobs? Not so much.
From the NPR transcript:
Oregon economist Christian Kaylor says he can think of only one explanation for the migration into Portland: the quality of life.
Kaylor says wages there are sometimes 20 percent lower than in Seattle or San Francisco. But people keep coming. In fact, Portland’s appeal is part of why the city’s unemployment rate tends to be about a point higher than the national average.
“In recessions, Portland tends to see population growth, even as we lose jobs,” Kaylor says. “So one of the reasons we have that higher unemployment rate is because people do continue to move here even as jobs disappear.”
Foodcarts, rock bands, and brewpubs aside, perhaps these recent additions will someday find reasonable employment options and eventually fuel the housing market in years to come. I have worked with several that fit this mold, and I hope their careers can continue to support both their lifestyle and housing choices.
It would be more funny if it weren’t so painful
Jon Stewart has a knack for putting a fine point on it. Actually, a serrated edge:
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
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Foreclosure Crisis |
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And there’s more:
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
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Mortgage Bankers Association Strategic Default |
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Sigh.
Is house flipping making a return?
NPR reports on the rising trend of all-cash housing transactions, including a resurgence of house flippers.
Listen at the audio link or read the article at NPR.org.
Oregon: Top Housing Market by 2014?
Reader Darin points us to a Yahoo/Bloomberg article touting Washington and Oregon as the top two housing markets to rebound by early 2014 (funny how that number went from late 2009 now to 2014).
The article specifically calls out Bend:
The area around Bend area, in central Oregon’s high desert by the Cascade Mountains, has the second-highest four-year growth forecast, 33.6 percent, after Bremerton-Silverdale, Wash. Bend draws home buyers and visitors with its wealth of outdoor recreational opportunities, but its prices have dropped about 40 percent since hitting a peak in late 2006. Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com now expect a rapid recovery starting next year. Greg Broderick, a real estate broker in Bend, says prices have overcorrected and buyers are seeing good value in the market. Homes priced the low hundred-thousand-dollar range “are being snapped up at a furious pace,” he says. Still, the area must deal with a higher-than-average unemployment rate, which the BLS says was 13.4 percent in June.
Yep, that jobs thing is kind of a big deal. You can’t eat lifestyle.
Full article over at Yahoo real estate.
Wealthy Owners Defaulting at Higher Rate Than Middle Class
The new buzz phrase in distressed real estate is “strategic default”, or purposely walking away from an upside down mortgage. Apparently, wealthy homeowners are handing the keys back to the bank at a higher rate than their middle-class counterparts.
The NY Times reports that homeowners with mortgages in excess of $1 million are defaulting at a 1 out of 7 pace.
From the NY Times article:
More than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent, according to data compiled for The New York Times by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.
By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.
Though it is hard to prove, the CoreLogic data suggest that many of the well-to-do are purposely dumping their financially draining properties, just as they would any sour investment.
“The rich are different: they are more ruthless,” said Sam Khater, CoreLogic’s senior economist.
“They may be less susceptible to the shame and fear-mongering used by the government and the mortgage banking industry to keep underwater homeowners from acting in their financial best interest,” Mr. White said.
Photo courtesy of Corvair Owner, used under Creative Commons license.
Senate Extends Tax Credit Deadline
Apparently there is a backlog of 180,000 homes that went under contract prior to April 30 but have not closed escrow in time to qualify for the Federal government’s tax credits. The Senate on Wednesday approved an extension for homes in escrow through September 30. The extension does not affect contracts accepted after April 30 and will have no impact on future home sales. The House passed a similar resolution in December.
I had not heard locally of a backlog, but I suppose homes that are short sales that are still awaiting lender approval could be affected.
More info at CNBC.
Free Homeownership Preservation Workshop Comes to Portland
If you’re struggling to keep your home, you may want to take advantage of an upcoming workshop and free counseling put on by the federal government.
From the Making Home Affordable Program:
A homeownership preservation workshop, sponsored by the Obama Administration’s Making Home Affordable Program, HOPE NOW Alliance and NeighborWorks® America, will be held in Portland for all homeowners who may be at risk of foreclosure. The workshop is free, open to the public, and provides a chance for homeowners to meet face-to-face with their mortgage company and a HUD-approved counseling agency to work on a solution to help them stay in their home.
WHO: Portland homeowners who are in default on their mortgage or may be at risk of foreclosure
WHAT: Free Homeownership Preservation Workshop
WHEN: Tuesday, March 23, 2010, 1:00 pm -7:30 pm
WHERE: Doubletree Hotel Portland, 1000 NE Multnomah Street, Portland, OR 97232
The Obama Administration’s Making Home Affordable Program was created to help millions of homeowners refinance or modify their mortgage payments to a level that is more affordable.
More information at www.MakingHomeAffordable.gov and a link to the flyer (in Spanish, too).
New Administration Program Pays Owners to Take Short Sale Option
New solutions from the Obama administration for the housing crisis continue to emerge.
From the New York Times comes:
More than five million households are behind on their mortgages and risk foreclosure. The government’s $75 billion mortgage modification plan has helped only a small slice of them. Consumer advocates, economists and even some banking industry representatives say much more needs to be done.
In an effort to end the foreclosure crisis, the Obama administration has been trying to keep defaulting owners in their homes. Now it will take a new approach: paying some of them to leave. This latest program, which will allow owners to sell for less than they owe and will give them a little cash to speed them on their way, is one of the administration’s most aggressive attempts to grapple with a problem that has defied solutions.
Taking effect on April 5, the program could encourage hundreds of thousands of delinquent borrowers who have not been rescued by the loan modification program to shed their houses through a process known as a short sale, in which property is sold for less than the balance of the mortgage. Lenders will be compelled to accept that arrangement, forgiving the difference between the market price of the property and what they are owed.
Under the new program, the servicing bank, as with all modifications, will get $1,000. Another $1,000 can go toward a second loan, if there is one. And for the first time the government would give money to the distressed homeowners themselves. They will get $1,500 in “relocation assistance.”
