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Case-Shiller Numbers Begin to Settle - Portland Ranks Mid-Pack
Those looking for a glimpse of blue sky amid the cloud layer covering the housing market may catch a peek today, based on April 2009 results of the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
The index shows that price declines were slowing in the 10 and 20-City composites. On average, major metro areas have seen 18% annual decreases in home values, but the month-over-month declines are slowing.
By comparison, Portland registered a record 16%, one-year decline in home values. The result is a little better than the overall average, and ranks 8th in the 20-city survey. April’s -0.6% decline over March was better than March/February’s -2.1% dip. Home prices in Portland are now comparable to those of May 2005. Nationally, prices are closer to mid-2003 vintage.
From David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s:
“While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here. The stock market bottomed in March and measures of consumer confidence have turned upward. This report shows that these better spirits are also appearing in the housing market”
Case-Shiller Home Price Index - April 2009
(Sorted by 1-year % change)
| Metropolitan Area |
April 2009
Level |
April/March
Change (%) |
March/February
Change (%) |
1-Year
Change (%) |
| Denver |
122.17
|
1.50%
|
0.10%
|
-4.90%
|
| Dallas |
114.39
|
1.70%
|
0.10%
|
-5.00%
|
| Boston |
146.45
|
0.40%
|
-2.00%
|
-7.70%
|
| Charlotte |
118.69
|
-0.50%
|
0.30%
|
-10.00%
|
| Cleveland |
98.07
|
1.20%
|
-0.90%
|
-10.50%
|
| New York |
170.33
|
-1.70%
|
-2.60%
|
-12.50%
|
| Atlanta |
105.36
|
0.30%
|
-1.50%
|
-14.80%
|
| Portland |
146.85
|
-0.60%
|
-2.10%
|
-16.00%
|
| Seattle |
149.38
|
0.20%
|
-2.00%
|
-16.80%
|
| Washington |
167.30
|
0.80%
|
-1.30%
|
-16.90%
|
| Chicago |
122.30
|
0.00%
|
3.10%
|
-18.70%
|
| San Diego |
144.43
|
-0.10%
|
-1.50%
|
-20.00%
|
| Los Angeles |
159.37
|
-0.90%
|
-1.40%
|
-21.30%
|
| Tampa |
140.41
|
-0.70%
|
-2.70%
|
-21.30%
|
| Minneapolis |
108.63
|
-0.70%
|
-5.90%
|
-22.10%
|
| Detroit |
69.92
|
-1.50%
|
-4.90%
|
-25.40%
|
| Miami |
145.77
|
-2.00%
|
-3.60%
|
-27.30%
|
| San Francisco |
118.46
|
0.60%
|
-2.20%
|
-28.00%
|
| Las Vegas |
112.39
|
-3.50%
|
-3.80%
|
-32.20%
|
| Phoenix |
104.45
|
-2.20%
|
-4.50%
|
-35.30%
|
| Composite-10 |
150.34
|
-0.70%
|
-2.10%
|
-18.00%
|
| Composite-20 |
139.18
|
-0.60%
|
-2.20%
|
-18.10%
|
Full details can be found at www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.
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Portland Oregon Real Estate Market Activity - May 2009
The Portland real estate market held steady through the month of May, posting modest month-over-month increases in closed and pending homes sales, while average and median sale prices remained flat compared to April. Year-to-date, the Portland metro area has sold 28% fewer homes than in the January - May 2008 period. Median and sale prices for May are down 13% from one year ago.
Interestingly, available home inventory remained virtually flat for the month. With the slight uptick in closed sales and fewer new listings than the seasonal norm, the housing inventory of 14,493 active listings would take 10.2 months to sell at current sales pace–the lowest mark since August of 2008.
So, is this nominal performance GOOD news? I suppose it should be viewed as positive. My buyer list is busy, and many agents I talk to say the same. Low rates, first-time buyer incentives, and a perception that prices are getting near the bottom are certainly having an effect.
On the other hand, I am worried about Oregon’s 12%+ unemployment and the downstream effects. Also, the activity induced by the first-time buyer tax credit activity will begin to recede in the next few months unless the timeframe is extended by the government. I mentioned earlier, that some market areas have up to 25% of their inventory in some form of short sale or repossessed foreclosure, so there are many homes that need to be absorbed, but are hard to buy right now.
I think this plateau of activity will continue through the summer and then we’ll see the seasonal activity dip again toward the end of the year which will put some downward pressure on prices.
Here is May 2009’s market activity summary:
Market Summary
|
May 2009
|
Prev. Month
April 2009 |
Last Year
May 2008 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $250,000 | $249,900 | $287,500 |
| Average Sale Price | $291,400 | $291,100 | $335,000 |
| Closed Sales | 1,427 | 1,302 | 1,863 |
| Pending Sales | 1,967 | 1,860 | 2,124 |
| New Listings | 3,879 | 3,808 | 5,182 |
| Active Listings | 14,493 | 14,328 | 17,066 |
| Total Market Time * | 147 days | 148 days | n/a |
| Inventory (in months) | 10.2 | 11.0 | 9.2 |
Here is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $464,400 | $390,000 | -10.2% | 150 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $438,900 | $357,000 | -2.2% | 165 |
| NW Washington County | $375,200 | $350,000 | -5.9% | 190 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $318,200 | $298,300 | -7.8% | 161 |
| Northeast Portland | $294,600 | $258,000 | -4.3% | 96 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $293,300 | $265,000 | -7.5% | 175 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $286,400 | $246,000 | -11.7% | 155 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $250,300 | $229,500 | -9.2% | 168 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $249,200 | $230,000 | -7.6% | 133 |
| Southeast Portland | $241,800 | $215,000 | -7.7% | 110 |
| Yamhill County | $235,800 | $215,000 | -10.4% | 196 |
| North Portland | $232,700 | $230,000 | -6.4% | 120 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $228,700 | $215,000 | -11.3% | 154 |
| Columbia County | $185,600 | $178,900 | -12.5% | 175 |
Data courtesy of RMLS, June 2009.
Friday Night Lites
Just a few news items to wrap up this week in Portland real estate:
Portland real estate prices stay level, sales on modest climb for May
RMLS official tabulations for May 2009 will come out next week, but my early review shows that closed sales continue a small month-over-month increase (a seasonal effect), and median and average sale prices were essentially flat from the previous month. Closed sales will show to be up 10% over April, but down by ~30% from one year ago. Both median and average sale prices are around 13% off levels from a year ago. Come back early next week for a full report.
Oregon foreclosures nearly double in a year
A recent tabulation of foreclosure activity in Oregon shows a nearly 90% increase compared to May 2008. One out of every 525 Oregon homes received a foreclosure filing in May–the nation’s 12th highest rate.
Oregon to get a head start on recovery?
Really? Why? From research by Moody’s:
High-tech industry is one element. A slowdown in technology spending in 2008 and 2009 has created a pent-up demand for technology — businesses that know they need to upgrade and are waiting for the ability to spend.
“States that have a high concentration in tech-related industries are well positioned to take advantage of this trend, which is particularly true of Colorado, Idaho, Oregon and Washington and to a lesser extent Texas,” said economist Andrew Gledhill of Moody’s Economy.com.
I certainly hope the prediction is true, but I suspect digging out of a 12% unemployment hole will take longer than expected. (And wasn’t Moody’s one of those rating companies that suggested those mortgage-backed securities were AAA rated?)
Bike community letting it all hang out
Last, but not least, the Portland bike community celebrates it’s version of the World Naked Bike Ride on June 13 with a series of events. If you’re in the vicinity of NE 39th and Glisan around 2PM, you’re bound to get an eyeful during the Sunny Nekkid Ride (fair warning!). The big event is at midnight, and last year, 2,000 riders participated.
Photo by jd.inaz. Used under Creative Commons license.
Nearly 20% of Portland Homes in Distress Sale Status
I have viewed hundreds of homes this year and it’s become very common to show one or two short-sale and bank-owned properties to a client during a given tour. That’s because nearly 18% of active listings fall into one of those categories — around 2,600 total across the Portland metro area.
Approximately 14% of active listings are short sales and 4% are homes already foreclosed upon and returned to the bank (REOs). The worst hit areas are Gresham, Beaverton, and Happy Valley, where a quarter of the inventory is either a foreclosure or on its way.
One caveat: Many of the properties in short sale status have offers pending, but lender response times for these transactions can take several weeks, even months. Therefore, the short sale inventory lingers in active status much longer than typical transactions.
Here’s a breakdown by market area, as of May 27, 2009.
| Area |
Bank-Owned Properties
(Foreclosed) |
3rd-Party Approval Needed*
(Short Sales) |
| Beaverton / Aloha |
5%
|
21%
|
| Gresham / Troutdale |
7%
|
19%
|
| Milwaukie / Clackamas |
6%
|
19%
|
| Southeast Portland |
5%
|
17%
|
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove |
3%
|
18%
|
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville |
3%
|
17%
|
| Oregon City / Canby |
3%
|
15%
|
| Northeast Portland |
4%
|
13%
|
| Columbia County |
4%
|
12%
|
| Lake Oswego / West Linn |
3%
|
9%
|
| Yamhill County |
3%
|
9%
|
| North Portland |
2%
|
9%
|
| NW Washington County |
2%
|
9%
|
| West Portland & Downtown |
2%
|
8%
|
*Third-party approval usually means a bank must approve a sale. Sometimes it means the property is in an estate and requires approval by an executor, but I scrubbed most of those properties out of the data.
If dabbling in distress properties is your cup of tea, drop me a line and I’ll send you the list of properties in the areas you’re interested.
Data courtesy of RMLS.
No. That’s not Mickey Mouse in your sewer line.
You just never know what you’ll run into during a home inspection. Here’s my latest sewer inspection (scope) result. The audio starts at 10 seconds and ends at around 50 seconds:
As you can hear, the inspector is delighted (”Sweet!”), not because he found rats in the sewer, but because he got some video footage of rats to share in his training sessions. I’m the one chuckling, nervously, in the background.
The buyers, um, did not find much humor in the discovery. In this case, however, the hole was near the city main, past the curb out in the street and will be the city’s repair.
But, here’s the point. I’ve had three sewer scopes done in past few weeks. And all three failed due to bellies (low points that hold water and waste) or separated joints in the pipe that will eventually cause problems. Even on new construction, it’s worth the $100 test fee, even if you don’t find rats.
UPDATE 07/01/2009:
If you thought that was gross, check out this sewer footage from North Carolina (hat tip Mike Rohrig).
Portland Real Estate Market Activity - April 2009
Traditional seasonal activity has Portland’s real estate market on the upswing, however the gains are modest.
Closed sales in April 2009 increased over March by 10% and pending sales (homes under contract) rose 13.6%. The month’s closed sales of 1,302 are 40% lower than the average number of April sales going back to 2000.
Inventory remained relatively flat, ending April with the market netting an additional 170 active listings. The number of active listings divided by the closed sales yields 11.0 months available inventory. Sold homes took an average of 4.8 months to receive an offer.
The median sale price is up 1.4% over March, but the average sale price is down 2.0%. On a year-to-year basis, prices are down 9.1% and 10.4% respectively for median and average. Prices are off 17-18% from the peak market values of August 2007. In other words, a house selling for the median price in August 2007 at $302,000 would conceivably sell now for around $250,000.
Home prices are bouncing around some, a sign some believe is indicative of the beginning of ‘the bottom’. I’m not so sure. The effects of rapid unemployment signals additional housing stress that we haven’t fully experienced yet. I don’t have any hard evidence, but it seems to me that short sale listings are on the increase.
Market Summary
|
April 2009
|
Prev. Month
March 2009 |
Last Year
April 2008 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $249,900 | $246,400 | $275,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $291,100 | $297,400 | $325,000 |
| Closed Sales | 1,302 | 1,184 | 1,582 |
| Pending Sales | 1,860 | 1,637 | 2,070 |
| New Listings | 3,808 | 3,685 | 5,295 |
| Active Listings | 14,328 | 14,158 | 16,370 |
| Total Market Time * | 148 days | 156 days | n/a |
| Inventory (in months) | 11.0 | 12.0 | 10.3 |
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $484,400 | $395,000 | -9.1% | 178 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $446,000 | $352,500 | -2.6% | 154 |
| NW Washington County | $363,000 | $333,800 | -5.8% | 135 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $320,700 | $304,400 | -8.0% | 158 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $299,800 | $248,900 | -9.0% | 147 |
| Northeast Portland | $297,100 | $259,900 | -3.0% | 107 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $296,300 | $265,000 | -8.2% | 185 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $249,000 | $231,500 | -6.6% | 126 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $245,500 | $225,700 | -9.6% | 165 |
| Southeast Portland | $240,800 | $215,000 | -6.2% | 127 |
| Yamhill County | $238,600 | $214,000 | -9.0% | 164 |
| North Portland | $234,500 | $236,300 | -5.1% | 113 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $228,200 | $213,500 | -9.1% | 167 |
| Columbia County | $179,900 | $170,000 | -11.1% | 185 |
Data courtesy of RMLS, May 2009.
Portland Real Estate Market - Early Review of April Results
With much anecdotal evidence and hearsay to the contrary, the reality for the Portland real estate market is that activity continues to move at a sluggish pace.
My early peek shows around 1,250 homes closing escrow in April, and over 1,700 homes going sale pending for the month. Although the number of sales and pending properties are up about 6% from March, these numbers are well below seasonal averages. (Closed sales for April 2006-2008 were 2,558, 2,594, and 1,582 respectively.)
Median and average prices will be down 17-18% from their peaks. The average price will come in around $291,000, down about 2% from last month. The median will likely come in around $250,000, up 1.5% from last month–the fifth month that the median has bounced between $246,000 and $259,000. Active inventory is basically flat or up just a smidge.
Does it signal the bottom? Leave your guess in the comments.
The RMLS staff will clean up the numbers and have them out by the 15th, and I’ll do a full post by market area at that time.
One Less Foreclosure Victim
Not all foreclosure casualties get so lucky. Meet Nyree, a recent addition to the Ares family.
A few weeks ago, an associate lobbed an innocent email grenade into my inbox. She had been previewing homes and on this particular day, walked through a short-sale property.
The family was being displaced and couldn’t bring along their Australian cattledog. The email was signed with the kiss-of-death “I thought of you” ending.
This, of course, started a whirlwind of emails, visits, family arguments and predictably, an adoption. Call it the indomitable persuasiveness of a daughter and wife tag-team.
Despite my grousing, I must say it has worked out way better than I expected. I’m also happy to see that the family’s house is now sale-pending, hopefully allowing them out from under the pressure of foreclosure.
For her part, Nyree seems to like it here (at least that’s what she says). She and Foster herd each other all day long–that’s a zero sum game. Plus, she’s got squirrels to chase and a little girl to cuddle with. Win, win.
I’m not sure what they’re looking so smug about.
Back to real estate tomorrow–an early look at April sales results.
Free Home Ownership Preservation Counseling Event
Having trouble keeping your home? Get some help.
An re:PDX reader sends me a notice for an upcoming FREE event at the Rose Quarter that could help folks keep their homes:
Home Ownership Preservation Event
Saturday, May 2, 2009; 10am-7pm
Memorial Coliseum (300 Winning Way Portland OR 97227)
Get answers from government agencies, non-profit counselors, and lenders about:
- Refinancing your loan
- Modifying your loan
- New government housing programs
- Avoiding foreclosure scams
You can register and ask for a one-on-one session to talk with a counselor. You’ll need to bring a photo ID and copies of the following:
- 2008 W-2’s and tax returns
- Most recent 30 days paystubs and information of ALL sources of income including but not limited to rental, SSI, Disability, unemployment
- Two most recent bank statements from all checking/savings accounts
- Two months most recent mortgage statements
- Copies of your Deed of Trust and Note
- Current balances on ALL credit cards and other debts, child support, student loans , Equity loans. You can use as a reference the list available at: www.homesafepmi.com/bif/
- A copy of your credit records from the three credit bureaus. They may be obtained from www.annualcreditreport.com
It’s a FREE event. If you’re struggling with keeping your home, please take advantage. More details here.
Sponsored by:Mortgage Lending Education Board/OAMP, Bureau of Housing and Community Development, Oregon Department of Justice, Oregon Housing and Community Services, Portland Development Commission, NeighborWorks America, Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Portland Real Estate Market Results - March 2009
Portland’s real estate market picked up a little momentum, as evidenced by the March 2009 results for home listings and sales. But the activity, while improving with respect to closed and pending sales, is far from normal.
Just 1,184 homes closed escrow in March–roughly half of Portland’s normal volume for March. Pending sales, most of which will close in the next couple months, are trending up, but again, at far from normal volumes.
Home prices are down 16.3% and 18.4% (average and median, respectively) from their peak in August of 2007. Values are now approximately where they were in late 2005. The median price for homes bought in March was $246,400–a year ago, it was $286,500.
The modest increase in sales and a slower-than-normal pace of adding new homes to the market has reduced the available inventory to 12 months (vs. 19 back in January). The month ended with fewer homes on the market in March than it did in February, an interesting statistic.
Market Summary
| March 2009 | February 2009 | March 2008 | |
| Median Sale Price | $246,400 | $259,000 | $286,500 |
| Average Sale Price | $297,400 | $298,500 | $336,700 |
| Closed Sales | 1,184 | 857 | 1,691 |
| Pending Sales | 1,637 | 1,276 | 1,938 |
| New Listings | 3,685 | 3,471 | 5,515 |
| Active Listings | 14,158 | 14,188 | 15,412 |
| Total Market Time * | 156 days | 153 days | n/a |
| Inventory (in months) | 12.0 | 16.6 | 9.1 |
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price | YTD Median Sale Price | 12-Mo. Appreciation | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $491,500 | $390,000 | -7.9% | 141 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $462,700 | $346,000 | -1.7% | 179 |
| NW Washington County | $383,000 | $368,800 | -4.1% | 163 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $322,300 | $315,000 | -6.9% | 226 |
| Northeast Portland | $296,000 | $260,000 | -2.0% | 130 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $292,500 | $259,000 | -7.3% | 137 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $287,000 | $250,000 | -5.5% | 171 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $255,000 | $236,100 | -5.0% | 145 |
| Yamhill County | $249,000 | $220,000 | -7.4% | 160 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $246,700 | $227,500 | -8.2% | 162 |
| Southeast Portland | $239,000 | $210,000 | -5.1% | 149 |
| North Portland | $232,000 | $229,600 | -2.0% | 114 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $225,000 | $213,000 | -8.0% | 144 |
| Columbia County | $171,000 | $168,500 | -9.1% | 178 |
Data courtesy of RMLS, April 2009.
