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John Ross Condos Go To Auction
Like the neighboring Atwater Place, owners of the John Ross Condominiums have decided to auction 50 unsold units in an effort to clear the books of remaining inventory in 2010.
Opening bid prices are 47% below current list prices and in some cases, 70% off the original list prices published during the go-go days of the 2005 bubble market. For example, studio prices start at $110,000. At the high-end, a 3,456 sq. ft. 3-bedroom/3.5 bathroom unit on the 30th floor starts at $600,000. It’s current list price is $1,149,000.
Where pricing will end up is anyone’s guess, but for comparison purposes, the Atwater Place auction averaged $300 per sq. ft. back in September 2009.
Bidders can attend the April 11 auction with a $5,000 cashier’s check and a preapproval by one of the project’s preferred lenders (or proof of funds, if cash). Using a preferred lender may provide you with a $3,000 credit toward your closing costs. The transaction must close by May 26, 2010.
You must register before April 8, and if you want your own agent to advise you on your purchase, you must register them with the John Ross sales office upon your first visit.
To date, the building has sold 223 of 303 total units, and spokesmen are hopeful they can get FHA lending qualification on the building in time for the auction.
More information on the John Ross auction:
Here is the auction site, auction brochure, and Term & Conditions document.
Portland Metropolitan Area Median Home Prices, 2000 – 2009
I put together a graph showing Portland-area median sale prices by month from 2000 through 2009.
The smooth curves show annual growth rates between 3% and 6% (from bottom to top) if you had purchased the median-priced home in January 2000. From 2000 through early 2004, home prices rose consistently in the 3 to 4% range. Then you can see the bubble pricing taking effect, jumping the growth curves and peaking in the summer of 2007.
The mid part of 2009 showed a plateau of $250,000 for a few months in a row, but even with homebuyer tax rebates and low interest rates, prices have continued their descent. Prices are now roughly equivalent with those of early 2005.
Click for a larger image.
Again, this is just a broad look at median pricing for the metro area in general (Portland, its suburbs, plus Yamhill and Columbia counties). I suspect the closer-in neighborhoods would fare better than the outlying areas, but that’s just an educated guess.
The question remains. When federal stimulus and interest rate support programs expire, what will happen to the market?
NY Times Charts Case-Shiller Numbers for Portland and U.S.
According to the Case-Shiller report, home price declines are easing throughout most of the country, including Portland–down 5.4% from the previous year.
The New York Times releases another of their nifty interactive graphs to compare markets. Be sure to click on Portland in the list.
Portland Real Estate Market Activity — January 2010 Results
Just about every metric comparing January 2010 to January 2009 would appear to be positive news — higher sales volume & pending sales, fewer new listings, shorter marketing timelines…
Except median sale prices, which were down 4% from January 2009 and 3.7% from last month. Prices are now off 20% from the peak values registered the summer of 2007.
Even the good news is a little hollow if you think about it. If you recall, January 2009 was the weakest home sale month in RMLS recorded history: just 732 homes throughout the metropolitan area. Last month, 986 homes closed escrow, but it was only the third-worst sales result recorded.
If there is a bright spot, it’s that 1,535 homes went sale pending in January–transactions that will close in February and March. The homebuyer tax credit may create some additional interest over the next couple months, but it sure didn’t have an effect on January.
North Portland stands out as a market area where inventory is moving the quickest (56 days on market compared to the 145 days average throughout the Portland area). That’s perhaps due to affordability and relative proximity to downtown.
Market Summary
| January 2010 |
December 2009 |
Last Year January 2009 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $240,000 | $242,200 | $250,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $282,400 | $293,300 | $297,200 |
| Closed Sales | 986 | 1,506 | 732 |
| Pending Sales | 1,535 | 1,141 | 1,235 |
| New Listings | 3,937 | 2,104 | 4,196 |
| Active Listings | 12,449 | 11,597 | 14,076 |
| Total Market Time * | 145 days | 144 days | 152 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 12.6 | 7.7 | 19.2 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date (or in this case, just for January 2010), and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Appreciation |
Total Mkt Time* |
| West Portland & Downtown | $427,400 | $310,000 | -11.9% | 147 |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $414,900 | $355,000 | -9.5% | 215 |
| NW Washington County | $377,500 | $370,000 | -9.3% | 175 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $314,000 | $287,700 | -9.6% | 184 |
| Northeast Portland | $276,200 | $242,500 | -10.0% | 144 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $263,200 | $249,000 | -9.3% | 130 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $262,600 | $220,000 | -11.4% | 114 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $242,600 | $225,900 | -11.9% | 129 |
| North Portland | $241,300 | $212,500 | -10.9% | 56 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $237,500 | $215,800 | -12.3% | 132 |
| Southeast Portland | $228,500 | $192,500 | -11.8% | 140 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $211,800 | $199,000 | -14.0% | 120 |
| Yamhill County | $208,200 | $202,400 | -15.4% | 192 |
| Columbia County | $171,800 | $184,000 | -15.8% | 119 |
Federal Housing Support Ends Soon. Then What?
I’ve been pondering how the housing market will fare as federal support programs wind down.
First, the Federal Reserve will discontinue its purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which has artificially kept mortgage rates down. Then, the homebuyer tax credits will expire at mid-year, leaving the housing market to fend for itself.
How will it do?
The New York Times hit that subject today, and while Portland is no Elkhart, Indiana, I do worry about the second half of the year here.
…it is uncertain whether the government can really pull back without sending housing markets into another tailspin. “A rise in rates would kill us all by itself,” Ms. Swartley (Elkhart Realtor) said.
The Obama administration has offered few ideas about reforming the housing market. Proposals for the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage holding companies taken over by the government at the height of the crisis, were supposed to be introduced with the president’s budget this month. They were not.
The government programs, however crucial, are distorting the market. The tax credit produced sales last fall, but some lenders here say it has troubling implications.
Troubling, indeed. Read the full NYT article here.
Photo by pfala, used under Creative Commons license.
Why Your Bank May Not Be Interested in Working Out Your Mortgage Problem
Lost in the breathless excitement surrounding low interest rates and homebuyer tax credits are the stories of beleaguered homeowners trying to work out their mortgage problems with their lenders in lieu of foreclosure.
Here’s a 4-minute video showing why (some) banks aren’t really interested in HARP refinances or modification:
Hat tip to Ralph Olson at Pacific West Appraisal.
Final Street of Eames Pre-Sale Tickets Now Available
Just a heads-up.
If you want an assured ticket for Portland’s popular modern home tour (April 17), you might have to pony up early.
The 2010 edition of the Street of Eames will be the last. And tickets will disappear in a matter of minutes.
However, from an announcement this week from the organizers of the Street of Eames home tour:
Tour tickets go on sale Monday, Feb. 22. But, as we did last year, we are selling advance tickets (with a donation) now so you can be sure of getting in.
Effective through Feb. 21, you can purchase tickets at $250 per pair. This includes two $50 tickets and a tax-deductible donation of $150 to the Street of Eames Fund, which supports after-school programs for homeless elementary school students in Portland Public Schools.
We have sold out every tour every year so buy your advance tickets now and make a difference for our city’s neediest children.
The April 17th tour, the fifth and final Street of Eames, will feature eight fabulous houses!
For more information, go to streetofeames.org. And follow us on Twitter @StreetofEames for updates as well as tour-day traffic alerts.
FHA Raises Borrower Requirements, Increases Fees
It’s an FHA-kinda day here at re:PDX.
In a move to minimize its own insolvency and avoid a bailout, the FHA is refining its lending guidelines and raising fees to borrowers.
In changes expected to occur in the first half of 2010, FHA-insured loans will require:
- Up-front mortgage insurance premiums to be 2.25% (up from 1.75% currently).
- Minimum FICO credit score of 580. Lower credit scores will require a 10% downpayment.
- Sellers limiting credits toward buyer’s closing costs and prepaid expenses to 3% (currently 6%).
From USA Today:
The changes, aimed at strengthening the FHA’s reserves in the face of rising foreclosures, shouldn’t hurt too many borrowers, officials say.
“We don’t expect this to have a significant impact on the housing market,” says FHA Commissioner David Stevens, adding that “the moves are designed to get the reserves back up.”
The FHA is playing a greater role in the mortgage market, insuring about 30% of new loans, up from 3% in 2007. Growing defaults have cut its reserves below the level mandated by Congress, leading to fears that it might need a taxpayer bailout.
HUD Temporarily Suspends FHA Anti-Flip Rule
Starting February 1, the Department of Housing and Urban Development will temporarily suspend a rule in FHA lending that prohibited lending on a home that had been previously owned for less than 90 days.
The rule had been in place to reduce the practice of speculators flipping properties for quick profit, but large inventories of foreclosures prompted the administration to suspend the rule in hopes of accelerating the sale of vacant properties.
“As a result of the tightened credit market, FHA-insured mortgage financing is often the only means of financing available to potential homebuyers,” said Donovan. “FHA has an unprecedented opportunity to fulfill its mission by helping many homebuyers find affordable housing while contributing to neighborhood stabilization.”
With certain exceptions, FHA currently prohibits insuring a mortgage on a home owned by the seller for less than 90 days. This temporary waiver will give FHA borrowers access to a broader array of recently foreclosed properties.
The policy change will permit buyers to use FHA-insured financing to purchase HUD-owned properties, bank-owned properties, or properties resold through private sales. This will allow homes to resell as quickly as possible, helping to stabilize real estate prices and to revitalize neighborhoods and communities.
The ruling will be in effect for one year. I don’t know if the ruling will have a significant effect on the Portland market in particular. Full text of the HUD announcement here.
[Photo courtesy of Lazurite, published under Creative Commons license.]
Portland Real Estate Market Activity – December 2009 Results
December 2009 certainly beat the tar out of December 2008 when it came to sales volume. Poor weather and economic uncertainty keep buyers out of the market a year ago, but 2009 closed with a reasonable amount of activity — 1,506 homes sold vs. 987 homes in December 2008.
The year ended with a 12-month average sale price of $289,900 and a median price of $247,000. These results were 12% and 11% lower than the 2008 12-month marks.
The Portland metro market closed a nearly identical number of properties (18,955) compared to 2008 (19,132), but due to declining sale prices, the sales volume was down to $5.5 billion vs. $6.3 billion in 2008.
Here are the numbers for December 2009:
Market Summary
| December 2009 |
November 2009 |
Last Year December 2008 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $242,200 | $239,000 | $252,900 |
| Average Sale Price | $293,300 | $273,300 | $300,800 |
| Closed Sales | 1,506 | 1,795 | 987 |
| Pending Sales | 1,141 | 1,328 | 810 |
| New Listings | 2,104 | 2,449 | 1,880 |
| Active Listings | 11,597 | 12,697 | 13,882 |
| Total Market Time * | 144 days | 131 days | 138 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 7.7 | 7.1 | 14.1 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that the median and average sale prices are year-to-date, and the appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Appreciation |
Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $486,300 | $395,000 | -9.8% | 235 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $420,500 | $347,600 | -12.0% | 175 |
| NW Washington County | $369,300 | $349,900 | -8.7% | 158 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $316,000 | $285,000 | -10.3% | 178 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $288,000 | $260,000 | -9.5% | 147 |
| Northeast Portland | $287,100 | $253,000 | -10.2% | 118 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $279,500 | $245,000 | -10.7% | 140 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $243,200 | $225,000 | -12.3% | 140 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $241,100 | $223,000 | -11.9% | 122 |
| Southeast Portland | $240,900 | $215,000 | -12.7% | 104 |
| North Portland | $236,000 | $230,000 | -11.3% | 101 |
| Yamhill County | $227,300 | $206,000 | -14.8% | 197 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $222,100 | $210,000 | -14.1% | 112 |
| Columbia County | $193,300 | $185,000 | -16.1% | 152 |
