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re:PDX is written by Ron Ares, broker and market analyst affiliated with M Realty LLC in Portland, Oregon.
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Portland Real Estate Market Statistics — December 2011
Real estate sales activity continued its upward trend for the third straight month, as over 1,600 homes closed escrow in the Portland area in December. The strongest December in a few years, combined with a dearth of new listings, led to the market’s lowest total inventory since June 2006. January buyers were met with only 8,612 homes on the market. The past few years have seen closer to 12,000 units available at year end. At the current pace of sales, the remaining inventory would be exhausted in 5.3 months.
“Wait!” you say. “Doesn’t 5 or 6 months of inventory signal a seller’s market?” you ask. Yeah, that’s the weird dichotomy the market presents. Over a third of transactions are distress sales and prices are still declining (albeit at a slower rate). Yet, in close-in neighborhoods or in well-kept properties that are priced reasonably, you can count on quick sales and sometimes, multiple offers. Four of the 6 homes I showed last Saturday were sale-pending by Tuesday morning.
Month-to-month average and median sale prices are bouncing somewhat, but for the year vs. 2010, the market was down 6.7% on average and 7.9% at the median. I will share 2011 end-of-year stats later this week.
Here are the figures for December:
Market Summary
| December 2011 | Prev. Month - November 2011 |
Last Year - December 2010 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $216,000 | $225,000 | $230,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $260,800 | $259,400 | $278,000 |
| Closed Sales | 1,612 | 1,521 | 1,462 |
| Pending Sales | 1,443 | 1,685 | 1,210 |
| New Listings | 1,700 | 2,026 | 1,925 |
| Active Listings | 8,612 | 9,451 | 11,611 |
| Distress Sales | 35% | 31% | 37% |
| Total Market Time * | 142 | 135 | 145 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 5.3 | 6.2 | 7.9 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that median and average sale prices are year-to-date. The appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Change | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $428,500 | $370,000 | -1.4% | 166 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $384,800 | $324,200 | -6.2% | 165 |
| NW Washington County | $358,100 | $325,000 | -1.7% | 115 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $278,000 | $254,000 | -8.7% | 164 |
| Northeast Portland | $266,900 | $229,000 | -5.8% | 139 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $240,000 | $220,000 | -7.8% | 141 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $233,400 | $211,100 | -8.0% | 156 |
| North Portland | $222,200 | $212,000 | -3.6% | 90 |
| Southeast Portland | $214,700 | $181,500 | -9.7% | 112 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $213,000 | $195,000 | -9.7% | 116 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $206,300 | $189,500 | -9.2% | 149 |
| Yamhill County | $198,800 | $173,100 | -10.1% | 180 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $195,700 | $178,000 | -8.4% | 147 |
| Columbia County | $159,400 | $145,500 | -11.9% | 150 |
Portland Real Estate Market Statistics – November 2011
The year end draws near and the Portland residential real estate market will end 2011 on a stronger note than 2010 — at least when measured by sales volume. Sales in November 2011 were 19% above last year’s pace and were actually 3% higher than October’s result.
However, available inventory, at just 9,451 units is at the lowest level since the summer of 2006. At the current pace of sales, the market would exhaust supply in 6.2 months. Nearly a third of homes sold in November could be described as ‘distress’ sales — either a short sale or bank-owned foreclosure.
Prices are slightly softer than a year ago, down about 4.6% on average and 3.4% for the median. The average home sale in November was $259,400. That is 27% off peak prices from the summer of 2008.
On that note, below is the grisly 11-year view of median home prices and various rates of appreciation since 2000. After some stabilization in 2009 and a sharp decline in late 2010, 2011 showed some signs of recovery despite some seasonal choppiness at the end.
Click for larger view
Here is a closer look at 2010 and 2011.
Click for larger view
Here are the tables for November:
Market Summary
| November 2011 | Prev. Month - October 2011 |
Last Year - November 2010 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $225,000 | $217,800 | $233,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $259,400 | $258,700 | $271,900 |
| Closed Sales | 1,521 | 1,474 | 1,279 |
| Pending Sales | 1,685 | 1,878 | 1,429 |
| New Listings | 2,026 | 2,433 | 2,473 |
| Active Listings | 9,451 | 10,012 | 13,103 |
| Distress Sales | 31% | 30% | 32% |
| Total Market Time * | 135 | 136 | 140 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 6.2 | 6.8 | 10.2 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that median and average sale prices are year-to-date. The appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Change | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $425,500 | $369,900 | -3.3% | 179 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $386,100 | $325,000 | -4.1% | 131 |
| NW Washington County | $356,300 | $320,000 | -3.7% | 133 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $280,000 | $257,500 | -7.7% | 139 |
| Northeast Portland | $267,900 | $230,000 | -5.2% | 108 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $239,400 | $219,800 | -9.9% | 130 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $232,900 | $211,000 | -10.3% | 132 |
| North Portland | $221,600 | $212,000 | -4.4% | 110 |
| Southeast Portland | $215,500 | $182,800 | -9.5% | 124 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $213,100 | $195,000 | -11.6% | 131 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $207,000 | $190,000 | -9.2% | 141 |
| Yamhill County | $198,900 | $174,500 | -7.4% | 183 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $196,200 | $178,000 | -8.1% | 135 |
| Columbia County | $159,600 | $146,500 | -11.0% | 168 |
Portland Real Estate Activity & Statistics – October 2011
The Portland real estate market begins its annual hibernation, with activity subsiding and prices taking a nap as well.
Compared to September, closed sales dropped 7%, the median price dipped 6.7% and the average slumped by 6.5%. The average sale price in October was $258,700 and the midpoint weighed in at $217,800 — the lowest levels since the market thawed in early 2011.
Nearly a third of closed sales were short sales or bank-owned foreclosures. November closings should be on par with October, however, with a slight rise in pending sales over October’s totals. The average time on market is around 4.5 months.
On a year-to-date basis, closed sales are up 2.1% and pending sales up 4.5% over 2010. However, new listings are off 26.3% from last year. Active inventory is the lowest since February 2007, starving motivated buyers for choices. Starting November, less than seven months’ inventory exists, around 10,000 homes.
Market Summary
| October 2011 | Prev. Month - September 2011 |
Last Year - October 2010 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $217,800 | $230,800 | $233,500 |
| Average Sale Price | $258,700 | $268,200 | $276,800 |
| Closed Sales | 1,474 | 1,586 | 1,292 |
| Pending Sales | 1,878 | 1,861 | 1,632 |
| New Listings | 2,433 | 2,501 | 3,119 |
| Active Listings | 10,012 | 10,666 | 13,805 |
| Distress Sales | 30% | 26% | 33% |
| Total Market Time * | 136 | 131 | 131 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 6.8 | 6.7 | 10.7 |
Below is activity by market area on year-to-date basis.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Change | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $429,100 | $370,000 | -3.4% | 135 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $388,700 | $328,400 | -3.4% | 149 |
| NW Washington County | $357,300 | $321,000 | -3.0% | 86 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $279,400 | $258,500 | -6.9% | 138 |
| Northeast Portland | $267,300 | $229,000 | -5.4% | 111 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $239,500 | $219,100 | -10.5% | 118 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $232,400 | $210,000 | -11.4% | 214 |
| North Portland | $219,900 | $209,500 | -6.0% | 122 |
| Southeast Portland | $214,000 | $180,600 | -8.5% | 135 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $212,800 | $194,900 | -12.1% | 119 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $207,600 | $190,000 | -8.8% | 135 |
| Yamhill County | $199,600 | $174,800 | -6.4% | 184 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $195,800 | $178,000 | -8.2% | 122 |
| Columbia County | $161,100 | $150,000 | -12.4% | 174 |
Please note that median and average sale prices are year-to-date. The appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Friday Fun – Portland At Night, Time-Lapse Video
I’m a sucker for time-lapse video, especially if Portland scenes are involved. Here’s a beaut:
Photography by Lance Page. Music soundtrack provided by Andrew Parish.
NPR Interview: Credit is Cheap But Extremely Tight
I caught a succinct, very clear explanation on NPR radio tonight about why credit is so cheap, but so difficult to qualify for when purchasing a home. Give it a listen:
In a related story, the national government is looking at changes to the loan modification process. Story here.
Portland Rental Market Gets Tight
While the homes sales market is stuck in a low gear, the Portland rental market has been in overdrive, with rents rising and vacancies shrinking.
A recent article in Portland’s local daily newspaper highlights the increased demand for apartment rentals, as well as the rising rent rolls. According to local property managers, average rents in the Portland area have risen 8% in the past year. The average 2-bedroom, 1-bath apartment in the Portland metro area runs $743 a month, although there is a wide range of pricing from area to area (see chart below).
While most property managers plan on an 8% vacancy rate (average 1 month per year), recent vacancies are below 4% (even lower in the city core). And because new apartment development slowed during the recent housing downturn, new inventory will be slim until developers find the wherewithal to build again — meaning rents aren’t going down anytime soon.
Are these reasons to consider a purchase instead? Not if your job situation is tenuous, or you’re new to the area, or the responsibilities of owning aren’t your thing. But at some point, the trade-offs may be worth a second look.
Portland Apartment Rental Market
Data source: Metro Multifamily Housing Association, via The Oregonian Business section. Full coverage at Oregonlive.com.
Portland Real Estate Activity & Statistics – September 2011
Portland’s real estate market continues to show steady…um….steadiness in September 2011 results.
Home sales slowed in September–a normal, seasonal pattern to be sure, however the level was nearly 200 units higher than in September 2010. Year-to-date, 2011′s total homes sales are slightly ahead of the pace set in 2010.
Inventory levels continue to stymie buyers as available listings are at the lowest levels since March 2007, when homes lasted all of 10 nanoseconds on the market. The 10,666 listings available at the end of September would last 6.7 months at the current pace of sales. New listings for the month (2,501) are down 30% compared to September 2010.
The median sale price across the market has been steadily creeping upward since its low in February, recovering to late 2010 levels. And although the median sale price has perked up, the average sale price tailed off slightly, suggesting that properties in the higher price ranges suffered some declines during the month.
Records show a decline in the percentage of homes sold in a distress situation. The early part of the year saw 35 to 40% of total homes sold in a short sale or bank-owned foreclosure, but that rate has steadily fallen now below 30%, giving credence to the rumors that banks may be holding back some inventory.
Market Summary
| September 2011 | Prev. Month - August 2011 |
Last Year - September 2010 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $230,800 | $225,000 | $240,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $268,200 | $271,800 | $279,900 |
| Closed Sales | 1,586 | 1,805 | 1,399 |
| Pending Sales | 1,861 | 2,187 | 1,584 |
| New Listings | 2,501 | 2,879 | 3,549 |
| Active Listings | 10,666 | 11,276 | 14,714 |
| Distress Sales | 26% | 27% | 32% |
| Total Market Time * | 131 | 134 days | 131 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 6.7 | 6.2 | 10.5 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that median and average sale prices are year-to-date. The appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Change | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $431,200 | $372,000 | -3.7% | 166 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $392,100 | $330,000 | -2.2% | 151 |
| NW Washington County | $362,000 | $322,500 | -1.3% | 91 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $277,600 | $256,000 | -7.2% | 174 |
| Northeast Portland | $267,800 | $229,000 | -5.5% | 99 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $238,100 | $219,000 | -10.9% | 116 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $232,000 | $210,000 | -11.5% | 123 |
| North Portland | $221,400 | $209,500 | -4.5% | 133 |
| Southeast Portland | $214,400 | $182,000 | -8.1% | 98 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $212,200 | $194,000 | -13.0% | 106 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $208,300 | $191,000 | -8.8% | 143 |
| Yamhill County | $199,400 | $174,800 | -6.0% | 159 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $195,100 | $178,000 | -8.1% | 157 |
| Columbia County | $160,800 | $149,500 | -13.0% | 201 |
Portland Real Estate Activity – August 2011
No earth shattering news to report on the August 2011 Portland real estate market results. Seasonal sales volume and pricing dynamics are in line with recent trending. Home sales prices softened month-over-month from July and were down 9 to 10% from a year ago.
Virtually the same number of homes have sold across the Portland area January through August in both 2010 and 2011. Given there were no artificial government tax incentives this year, that’s probably a good thing. Home sales figures have been more consistent in 2011 — no real spikes in activity, unlike 2010.
The dearth of new listings and the steady flow of closed sales has left the market with just 6.2 months of available inventory. If the supposed ‘shadow inventory’ of properties held back by lenders due to MERS confusion or other factors is unleashed, be prepared for additional price reductions.
In other (obvious) news, mortgage interest rates are ridiculously low. If you haven’t refinanced or are wondering what kind of buying power these low rates will get you, let me know and I’ll refer you to some great brokers and bankers for some advice.
Market Summary
| August 2011 | Prev. Month - July 2011 |
Last Year - August 2010 |
|
| Median Sale Price | $225,000 | $227,200 | $250,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $271,800 | $275,100 | $299,300 |
| Closed Sales | 1,805 | 1,709 | 1,381 |
| Pending Sales | 2,187 | 1,928 | 1,688 |
| New Listings | 2,879 | 2,942 | 3,829 |
| Active Listings | 11,276 | 11,970 | 15,200 |
| Distress Sales | 27% | 28% | 30% |
| Total Market Time * | 134 days | 132 days | 126 days |
| Inventory (in months) | 6.2 | 7.0 | 11.0 |
Below is activity by market area. Please note that median and average sale prices are year-to-date. The appreciation numbers are a 12-month average compared to the previous 12-month average. Total market time is the number of days between the date it went on the market and when it received an acceptable offer.
Market Report by Area
| Area | YTD Avg. Sale Price |
YTD Median Sale Price |
12-Mo. Change | Total Mkt Time* |
| Lake Oswego / West Linn | $427,100 | $370,000 | -6.7% | 167 |
| West Portland & Downtown | $390,300 | $329,900 | -2.5% | 131 |
| NW Washington County | $363,100 | $320,000 | -2.2% | 95 |
| Tigard / Tualatin / Sherwood / Wilsonville | $277,800 | $258,800 | -5.9% | 171 |
| Northeast Portland | $270,300 | $229,700 | -4.4% | 105 |
| Milwaukie / Clackamas | $239,300 | $218,900 | -10.8% | 138 |
| Oregon City / Canby | $230,900 | $210,000 | -12.0% | 135 |
| North Portland | $221,100 | $206,500 | -4.7% | 93 |
| Southeast Portland | $213,900 | $180,500 | -7.2% | 110 |
| Beaverton / Aloha | $209,600 | $190,000 | -12.5% | 141 |
| Hillsboro / Forest Grove | $205,700 | $190,500 | -9.5% | 118 |
| Gresham / Troutdale | $195,400 | $177,000 | -7.4% | 140 |
| Yamhill County | $194,100 | $172,500 | -7.1% | 179 |
| Columbia County | $160,800 | $149,500 | -12.3% | 137 |
Friday Fun – We Love our Timbers
Major League Soccer fans across the country know that Portland has the most rabid, passionate fans in the league. Sure, the Blazers are the top game in town, but the Portland Timbers are giving them a run for their money when it comes to promotion.
Coach John Spencer is a big part of that. And whenever I need a laugh, this Alaska Airlines ad does the trick:
Friday Fun – “If Public Art Could Talk”
Another Portland-y vid from Mike Vogel, this one titled “If Public Art Could Talk“.
It’s mostly safe for work.
